Didn't Quite Get 1% Short Term Cycle Sell Signals Today
But HUI, NEM, and the XAU's short term upcycles clearly appear to have broken down
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ,
and appear to be on the flat part of a short downcycle that should be Elliot Wave A down. Yes, another Elliot Wave A, B, C correction has probably begun. The COT data released today clearly points to a downturn with the gold commercial traders selling aggressively and doing significant though not overly aggressive shorting http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
NEM slightly outperformed today, but led to the downside late in the session as can be seen at this link http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Both the NEM Lead Indicator at +2.15% vs the XAU last week and the bullish COT data last week pointed to a substantial rebound that I didn't really anticipate (though I did point out in last weekend's update was a definite possibility), because I thought SPX weakness would lead to gold/silver stock weakness as index funds sold their gold/silver stocks, but SPX was very flat this week and rallied much of the past four days, which added to gold/silver stock strength as did the Barrick/Placer Dome deal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= ,
and appear to be on the flat part of a short downcycle that should be Elliot Wave A down. Yes, another Elliot Wave A, B, C correction has probably begun. The COT data released today clearly points to a downturn with the gold commercial traders selling aggressively and doing significant though not overly aggressive shorting http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
NEM slightly outperformed today, but led to the downside late in the session as can be seen at this link http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Both the NEM Lead Indicator at +2.15% vs the XAU last week and the bullish COT data last week pointed to a substantial rebound that I didn't really anticipate (though I did point out in last weekend's update was a definite possibility), because I thought SPX weakness would lead to gold/silver stock weakness as index funds sold their gold/silver stocks, but SPX was very flat this week and rallied much of the past four days, which added to gold/silver stock strength as did the Barrick/Placer Dome deal.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:11 PM
2 Comments:
Merry Christmas, Joe. Take a look at that unfilled XAU gap created Thursday when it traded late due to the PDG deal.
By
Jeff, at 12:24 PM
Merry Christmas Jeff. NEM and the XAU should do some serious downside gap filling next week.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 1:11 PM
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