Trade the Cycles

Thursday, December 22, 2005

..............Barrick And Placer Dome Agree To A Deal

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051222/20051222005325.html?.v=1

The COT Data pointed to potentially substantial strength after early weakness this week. Also, the NEM Lead Indicator was very bullish at +2.15% last week.

The COT data is basically bullish with the gold Commercial Traders trading net long and the gold Speculators trading net short, but the unusually large (> 10% increase in long position) long trade by the Commercial Traders points to some short term weakness, but much or all of that indicated weakness has already occurred because the data is as of Tuesday 12-13. The gold Commercial Traders added an unusually large (> 10% increase in long contracts) 11,405 (sold 14,042 the prior week, added 17,312 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and added 2623 (covered 5276 the prior week, added 16,229 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long trade is a short term contrarian indication and the shorting also points to weakness, but the net long increase points to strength following that weakness and most or all of the weakness may have occurred last week because the data is three days stale when released. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold an unusually large (> 10% decrease in long contracts) 19,247 (added 9102 the prior week, sold 2697 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered an unusually large (> 10% decrease in short contracts) 8720 (added 566, 2309 the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator), because the unusually large long liquidation is a short term non contrarian indication, but the unusually large short covering points to some strength, and the net short increase points to strength following that weakness and most or all of the weakness may have occurred last week because the data is three days stale when released.

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