S & P 500 (SPX) Strength Again Leads To Gold/Silver Stock Strength
Due to SPX index funds buying NEM and other index funds buying the gold/silver stocks in their respective indices.
The most important/primary market timing consideration is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in monthly/minor int term downcycles since 12-12. HUI, NEM, and the XAU have rallied back to the relatively flat part of their monthly/minor int term downcycle trendlines, which means that the parabolic Elliot Wave C short term downcycle hasn't begun yet as previously thought, but may begin today assuming short term cycle highs occur today. This is a good example of why Elliot Wave and all other tools/indicators are secondary to cycle channels/trendlines. It's easy to assign A, B, C points after a monthly downcycle is completed, but is probably impossible to do consistently real time. The important thing anyway is that a monthly downcycle is in effect and that cycles tend to begin relatively flat and become more parabolic over time, not Elliot Wave as I've said before.
My streamer doesn't show ABX or PDG (or GG which is affected) trading yet, so that may causing NEM's big spike today along with index fund buying. Barrick has apparently extended a formal offer for Placer Dome.
Monthly cycle lows may occur next week in the 235-245 (HUI), 45-47 (NEM), and 109-114 (XAU) target ranges, based on their major int term upcycle trendlines since 5-16-05.SPX strength made SPX index funds buy NEM (and made other index funds buy other gold/silver stocks) and therefore led to general gold/silver stock strength early today, which should be short lived. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=%5EGSPC
The NEM Lead Indicator is unknown right now since the XAU isn't trading yet, after being slightly bullish yesterday at +0.05% vs the XAU. Keep in mind that indicators portend more strength in short term upcycles versus downcycles and of course the monthly cycle has turned down, so less strength is likely in a monthly downcycle than a monthly upcycle, which is another consideration.
XAU Implied Volatility fell -4.86% to 29.875 on Wednesday 12-21 from 31.400 on 12-20 versus a +2.49% rise in the XAU on 12-21, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) 2.37% rise in complacency (-4.86% + +2.49% = -2.37%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by 2.37%, therefore complacency rose by +2.37%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 12-22's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell a very sharp (3-6%) 4.34% to 1.24103 today from 1.29733 on 12-21 which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. Ciao
The most important/primary market timing consideration is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in monthly/minor int term downcycles since 12-12. HUI, NEM, and the XAU have rallied back to the relatively flat part of their monthly/minor int term downcycle trendlines, which means that the parabolic Elliot Wave C short term downcycle hasn't begun yet as previously thought, but may begin today assuming short term cycle highs occur today. This is a good example of why Elliot Wave and all other tools/indicators are secondary to cycle channels/trendlines. It's easy to assign A, B, C points after a monthly downcycle is completed, but is probably impossible to do consistently real time. The important thing anyway is that a monthly downcycle is in effect and that cycles tend to begin relatively flat and become more parabolic over time, not Elliot Wave as I've said before.
My streamer doesn't show ABX or PDG (or GG which is affected) trading yet, so that may causing NEM's big spike today along with index fund buying. Barrick has apparently extended a formal offer for Placer Dome.
Monthly cycle lows may occur next week in the 235-245 (HUI), 45-47 (NEM), and 109-114 (XAU) target ranges, based on their major int term upcycle trendlines since 5-16-05.SPX strength made SPX index funds buy NEM (and made other index funds buy other gold/silver stocks) and therefore led to general gold/silver stock strength early today, which should be short lived. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cm26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=%5EGSPC
The NEM Lead Indicator is unknown right now since the XAU isn't trading yet, after being slightly bullish yesterday at +0.05% vs the XAU. Keep in mind that indicators portend more strength in short term upcycles versus downcycles and of course the monthly cycle has turned down, so less strength is likely in a monthly downcycle than a monthly upcycle, which is another consideration.
XAU Implied Volatility fell -4.86% to 29.875 on Wednesday 12-21 from 31.400 on 12-20 versus a +2.49% rise in the XAU on 12-21, which is a sharp (2-2.99%) 2.37% rise in complacency (-4.86% + +2.49% = -2.37%. The XAU wall of worry shrank by 2.37%, therefore complacency rose by +2.37%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Thursday 12-22's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell a very sharp (3-6%) 4.34% to 1.24103 today from 1.29733 on 12-21 which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends some weakness today. Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:55 AM
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