Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, December 21, 2005

NEM Outperformed The XAU By A Slight Margin Of +0.05% Today

After hitting the bottom of their monthly downcycle channels late yesterday and the top early on 12-19, HUI, NEM, and the XAU rallied toward the top of their monthly downcycle channels today, with help from SPX which also rallied toward the top of it's monthly downcycle channel today, which led to index funds buying NEM and other gold/silver stocks today. SPX peaked at mid session, a few hours before HUI, NEM, and the XAU, which peaked at session's end, so SPX (S & P 500) appears to be leading to the downside as expected.

It's likely that HUI, NEM, and the XAU will turn down early tomorrow and resume their sharp decline/Elliot Wave C short term downcycle that began on 12-19. SPX has a downside gap below 1260 that it'll probably fill early tomorrow which will add to likely gold/silver stock weakness. Also, VIX, the SPX Volatility Index (gauge of SPX options implied volatility) fell by -3.40% today versus a slight rise in SPX, which is a very sharp rise in complacency that points to SPX weakness during some of tomorrow's session. Ciao

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