Trade the Cycles

Thursday, December 22, 2005

HUI, NEM, XAU Short Term Cycle Highs May Occur Today

So, they may have entered the sharply declining/parabolic part of the monthly downcycle corresponding to Elliot Wave C down. What you need to remember is that Elliot Wave is secondary to cycle channels/trendlines and that I'm NOT an Elliot Wave expert, I'm merely using the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 upcycle and A, B, C downcycle patterns. From what little I've read downcycles CAN also be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, but, cycles and the nature of cycles is primary anyway, you don't need Elliot Wave at all, but it is useful, especially in upcycles with the likely 3 short term upcycles within a monthly/minor int term upcycle. Ciao

posted by Joe Ferrazzano at 9:06 AM

8 Comments:

  • Funny you should mention that you think the highs are today - I just got some NEM shorts (puts @ 47.5) back on. Hope we're both right!

    By Blogger Jeff, at 11:16 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 11:22 AM  

  • Which is a sure way to get NEM to rise another 35 cents in a half hour.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 11:53 AM  

  • Jeff,

    NEM has risen more than 6% in less than two days which is obviously a spike move, and, has a downside gap to fill at 50.45. The monthly downcycle is starting out flat. NEM's monthly cycle high was at 52.49 versus today's high so far at 52.09.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 12:02 PM  

  • Reinforcing that - the volume is pretty high for a day when trading should be relatively light, between NYC being slowed down, and Christmas week. Given the circumstances, it looks more like an obvious spike up move.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 12:24 PM  

  • Good observation Jeff. Also, NEM's intraday upcycle is very flat which indicates it's rolling over and should fill it's downside gap at 50.45 in the next day or two.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 12:43 PM  

  • As of now, that trade isn't working well at all. But it's freaky Friday, and a holiday eve with a bunch of metals markets closed, so who knows.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 7:59 AM  

  • Jeff,

    A lot of the strength is NEM short covering due to the Barrick/Placer Dome deal. SPX appears to have broken it's very short term upcycle, so that should cause gold/silver stocks to break down soon.

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:02 AM  

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