Wave A Of SPX/NDX/RUT's Wave 4 Monthly Downcycle Probably Didn't Bottom Yet
First, for gold sector and TA/market timing enthusiasts, you have to see how well the latest gold COT data fits the latest analysis, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/05/latest-gold-cot-commitments-of-traders.html.
Note that I did the analysis last night, before the gold COT data was released (today 5-23 at 3:30 EST). This is all I'll post in this update for the gold sector. The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.14% versus the XAU today/on 5-23, -0.23% on 5-22, +0.68% on 5-21, -0.83% on 5-20, -0.21% on 5-19.
Wave A of SPX/NDX/RUT's Wave 4 Monthly Downcycle since 5-19-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c= and see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) doesn't have a large bullish inverse spike on today 5-23's intraday or daily chart, and, today 5-23's anemic strength (once a session cycle low occurred), in the face of a very bullish short term WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), points to more downside on Tuesday.
However, a very oversold SPX (Williams %R near -100 and RSI is oversold) points to a significant bounce (will probably enter Wave B up of the Wave 4 Monthly Downcycle since 5-19-08 ) at some point on Tuesday.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.78% versus SPX today 5-23 and was a very bullish +1.23% versus SPX yesterday 5-22.
The SPX/NDX/RUT Wave 3 Monthly Upcycle that began on 4-15-08 peaked on 5-19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c= and see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX/NDX/RUT all have large bearish spikes on 5-19's candle.
An SPX Wave 2 monthly cycle low occurred on 4-15-08, and, a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began on 3-17-08 for SPX and NDX (3-10-08 for the Russell 2000 (RUT)). A Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred on 4-7-08.
Tuesday 5-27 I'll be looking to trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM, and, I might trade WMT long, watching upside gaps at 56.05, 56.40, and, 58.02. SPX has upside gaps at 1394.35 (should get filled in Wave B) and at 1426.63 (probably won't get filled in Wave B) that might get filled in the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 5-19-08.
Once the SPX Wave A move that began on 5-19 bottoms, as it should on Tuesday, there'll be a reference point for trading the Wave C move (Wave 4 monthly cycle low target). Wave C obviously should bottom well below the Wave A cycle low, and, SPX (S & P 500) should fill it's downside gap at 1356.65 in the Wave C move and bottom at 1350-1355 = Wave 4 monthly cycle low target.
Downside gap filling action (1356.65 for SPX, 1917.70, 1881.65, and 1840.88 (likely bullish breakaway gap) for NDX, 692.06 for RUT, 55.15 (filled) and maybe 52.68 for WMT) is expected (normally would occur) in the Wave 4 monthly downcycle.
Since important cycle highs/lows tend to occur shortly after gap filling action is completed, both timewise and pricewise, reasonable Wave 4 monthly cycle low targets are 1350-1355 for SPX, 1875-1880 for NDX, and, 690ish for RUT. WMT has downside gaps at 55.15 (filled) and 52.68.
VIX rose +8.31% today 5-23 versus SPX falling -1.32%, which is an unusually large +6.99% rise in fear (+8.31% + -1.32% = +6.99% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness followed by strength on Tuesday 5-27.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
SPX created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 and WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Note that I did the analysis last night, before the gold COT data was released (today 5-23 at 3:30 EST). This is all I'll post in this update for the gold sector. The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.14% versus the XAU today/on 5-23, -0.23% on 5-22, +0.68% on 5-21, -0.83% on 5-20, -0.21% on 5-19.
Wave A of SPX/NDX/RUT's Wave 4 Monthly Downcycle since 5-19-08 probably didn't bottom yet, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c= and see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) doesn't have a large bullish inverse spike on today 5-23's intraday or daily chart, and, today 5-23's anemic strength (once a session cycle low occurred), in the face of a very bullish short term WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC), points to more downside on Tuesday.
However, a very oversold SPX (Williams %R near -100 and RSI is oversold) points to a significant bounce (will probably enter Wave B up of the Wave 4 Monthly Downcycle since 5-19-08 ) at some point on Tuesday.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bullish +0.78% versus SPX today 5-23 and was a very bullish +1.23% versus SPX yesterday 5-22.
The SPX/NDX/RUT Wave 3 Monthly Upcycle that began on 4-15-08 peaked on 5-19, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c= and see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx. SPX/NDX/RUT all have large bearish spikes on 5-19's candle.
An SPX Wave 2 monthly cycle low occurred on 4-15-08, and, a countertrend Wave B intermediate term upcycle began on 3-17-08 for SPX and NDX (3-10-08 for the Russell 2000 (RUT)). A Wave 1 monthly cycle high occurred on 4-7-08.
Tuesday 5-27 I'll be looking to trade SPX/NDX/RUT ultra long via SSO, QLD, or UWM, and, I might trade WMT long, watching upside gaps at 56.05, 56.40, and, 58.02. SPX has upside gaps at 1394.35 (should get filled in Wave B) and at 1426.63 (probably won't get filled in Wave B) that might get filled in the countertrend Wave B upcycle of the Wave 4 monthly downcycle since 5-19-08.
Once the SPX Wave A move that began on 5-19 bottoms, as it should on Tuesday, there'll be a reference point for trading the Wave C move (Wave 4 monthly cycle low target). Wave C obviously should bottom well below the Wave A cycle low, and, SPX (S & P 500) should fill it's downside gap at 1356.65 in the Wave C move and bottom at 1350-1355 = Wave 4 monthly cycle low target.
Downside gap filling action (1356.65 for SPX, 1917.70, 1881.65, and 1840.88 (likely bullish breakaway gap) for NDX, 692.06 for RUT, 55.15 (filled) and maybe 52.68 for WMT) is expected (normally would occur) in the Wave 4 monthly downcycle.
Since important cycle highs/lows tend to occur shortly after gap filling action is completed, both timewise and pricewise, reasonable Wave 4 monthly cycle low targets are 1350-1355 for SPX, 1875-1880 for NDX, and, 690ish for RUT. WMT has downside gaps at 55.15 (filled) and 52.68.
VIX rose +8.31% today 5-23 versus SPX falling -1.32%, which is an unusually large +6.99% rise in fear (+8.31% + -1.32% = +6.99% rise in the SPX (S & P 500) wall of worry) that points to some significant weakness followed by strength on Tuesday 5-27.
SPX (S & P 500) and NDX (NASDAQ 100) put in Wave A intermediate term cycle (since 10-11-07 for SPX and late October 2007 for NDX) lows on 3-17, while RUT (Russell 2000) did so on 3-10, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx for SPX.
The Upside Surprise/Rollover Barometer is at "Likely" due to the aggressive Fed credit extended since 2-28-08, that fuels index related program buying ("only" 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
SPX created a bullish breakaway gap at 1322.70 on 4-1 and WMT created one at 52.68, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=. SPX (S & P 500) has a bullish breakaway gap at 1276.60 from 3-18's open and WMT has one at 49.95 from 3-18's open.
.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:36 PM
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