Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Appears To Have Hit A Short Term Wave 4 Cycle Low At 45.70 Early Today
Looking at WMT's 5 day Yahoo chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT appears to have hit a short term Wave 4 cycle low at 45.70 early today, of the monthly upcycle that began at 45.4779 on 8-1 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt), with the Wave 2 cycle low being the double bottom at 45.50 on 8-3. Wave 3 up peaked at 48.42 late on Wednesday. Note the bullish large inverse spike on today's and 8-1's candles.
The WMT monthly upcycle since 8-1 is probably Wave 1 of a minor intermediate term upcycle, and, will probably be more like a long short term upcycle than a typical 3-5 week monthly upcycle.
SPX hit a Wave A cycle low of an intermediate term downcycle on Monday (chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows why it's probably just Wave A). Wave 1 of Wave B peaked late Wednesday (could be the entire Wave B, but, Wave 1 of Wave B is the likely scenario). Then SPX did a very brief Wave A of Wave 2 down, that did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, which bottomed just after yesterday's plunge shortly after the open, followed by a very brief Wave B up of Wave 2 down, then SPX did a big Wave C of Wave 2 down that bottomed early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, SPX entered Wave 3 up of Wave B (of an intermediate term downcycle) early today.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.86% versus SPX today, and, turned bearish late in the session, which points to some early SPX weakness on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. This jives with SPX's late session spike that should correct early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note the nice Elliott Wave patterns since SPX hit a Wave A cycle low on Monday. It did a Wave 1 up followed by a Wave 2 down that bottomed early today. The very short term cycles have nice Elliott Wave patterns also.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a neutral +0.00% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Fed credit was a massive $24 Billion yesterday, on punch spiking Thursday, and, was a humongous $38 Billion today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is the largest one day Fed credit I've ever seen. The Fed is rightfully concerned about a market crash. So far SPX and WMT's Elliott Wave patterns have held, despite the very difficult/volatile market conditions. Computer program index fund buying/selling is a huge factor, with SPX being the key lead index.
Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hit a monthly cycle buy signal Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT put in a monthly cycle low at 45.4779 on Wednesday 8-1 (bullish double bottom with Friday 8-3's cycle low at 45.50), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
WMT did a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which indicates that WMT has very likely bottomed. Also, there's a bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday 8-1's candle.
SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) hit a Wave A cycle low (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) of an intermediate term downcycle on Monday. If you have long positions when SPX's Wave B peaks in a week or so (use the Elliott Wave count to time Wave B, and, a large bearish spike may occur on the candle the day it peaks), it makes sense to seriously consider taking some profits.
Now for the trading stocks:
I day traded the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso) today, buying it at 86.50 and selling it less than 23 minutes later at 87.534. I used the intraday Elliott Wave count to day trade it. I'm going to look to day trade SSO and/or the Ultra Short SPX ETF SDS every day, and, may day trade other ETFs/stocks if there are good entry points/intraday charts. A good entry point for SSO is likely to occur early on Monday.
MTTG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mttb), a beneficiary of the Minnesota bridge collapse (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/mttgob-is-beneficiary-of-minnesota.html), plunged dramatically Monday and Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=mttg.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle that is probably in Wave C down.
It looks like MTTG.OB is doing a huge Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in Wave 2 down, and, volume may dry up, so, risk is high right now, so be careful if you trade this one. I'll look to/may buy MTTG.OB in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
JASO had a huge day on Tuesday (strong follow through at Wednesday's open) and hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. I'll look to buy JASO in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. The short term Wave 2 down may have bottomed early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=jaso&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
JRCC (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc) got rocked by a poor earnings report, so, it needs to hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal again.
WWAT.OB hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Monday's candle. WWAT.OB probably put in a Wave A of a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.65 yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wwat.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==). I'll look to buy late in the short term Wave 2 or early in the short term Wave 3 upcycle. It looks like WWAT needs to do Wave C of Wave C (yes, Wave C of Wave C) of the short term Wave 2 early on Monday, when I'll be looking to go long.
WFMI did a brief parabolic monthly upcycle that peaked at 46.74 yesterday, note the bearish large spike on yesterday's candle, and, it hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wfmi. It filled it's upside gap at 45.80 (created in May) yesterday, peaked at 46.74, then plunged dramatically, closing at 44.85 (got gaps?, closed today at 42.27). The dramatic decline indicates that WFMI probably entered Wave A down of a monthly downcycle yesterday. Often important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action is completed. There's a downside likely breakaway gap at 37.04, which, assuming that gap remains unfilled (the bullish breakaway gap remains) after the monthly downcycle/Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction bottoms, I'll look to go long.
SOPO did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle that peaked at Tuesday's open, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sopo. Assuming the downside gap at 0.48 created at Monday's open remains unfilled (is a bullish breakaway gap) after the short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms (appears to have bottomed Wednesday at 0.55), I'll look to go long.
IOC did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ioc. Wave 2 down bottomed Tuesday at 25.40. IOC may have hit a minor intermediate term cycle high at 36.38 yesterday, note the very bearish very large spike on yesterday's candle, and, note the huge decline from 36.38 to the close at 31.01, which is a major warning sign. Since hitting an intermediate term cycle low in late June IOC has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern that may have peaked at 36.38 yesterday, so, one should avoid IOC right now. Even though IOC's monthly upcycle Elliott Wave count is/appears to be Wave 4 down or Wave 5 up, it's negated by the longer minor intermediate term cycle Elliott Wave count, and, the fact that a huge very bearish spike occurred yesterday, followed by a dramatic decline, which is a major warning sign.
HSOA did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?hsoa. Wave 4 down appears to have bottomed today at 4.97 (bullish inverse spike on today's candle). I'll look to go long on Monday.
TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta) may have bottomed on Tuesday, but, looking to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in a Wave 3 up probably makes sense if you plan to trade this stock. Keep in mind that TMTA has to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
The WMT monthly upcycle since 8-1 is probably Wave 1 of a minor intermediate term upcycle, and, will probably be more like a long short term upcycle than a typical 3-5 week monthly upcycle.
SPX hit a Wave A cycle low of an intermediate term downcycle on Monday (chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html shows why it's probably just Wave A). Wave 1 of Wave B peaked late Wednesday (could be the entire Wave B, but, Wave 1 of Wave B is the likely scenario). Then SPX did a very brief Wave A of Wave 2 down, that did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern, which bottomed just after yesterday's plunge shortly after the open, followed by a very brief Wave B up of Wave 2 down, then SPX did a big Wave C of Wave 2 down that bottomed early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, SPX entered Wave 3 up of Wave B (of an intermediate term downcycle) early today.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a very bearish -0.86% versus SPX today, and, turned bearish late in the session, which points to some early SPX weakness on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC. This jives with SPX's late session spike that should correct early on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note the nice Elliott Wave patterns since SPX hit a Wave A cycle low on Monday. It did a Wave 1 up followed by a Wave 2 down that bottomed early today. The very short term cycles have nice Elliott Wave patterns also.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a neutral +0.00% versus the XAU today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem.
Fed credit was a massive $24 Billion yesterday, on punch spiking Thursday, and, was a humongous $38 Billion today, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE, which is the largest one day Fed credit I've ever seen. The Fed is rightfully concerned about a market crash. So far SPX and WMT's Elliott Wave patterns have held, despite the very difficult/volatile market conditions. Computer program index fund buying/selling is a huge factor, with SPX being the key lead index.
Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hit a monthly cycle buy signal Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT put in a monthly cycle low at 45.4779 on Wednesday 8-1 (bullish double bottom with Friday 8-3's cycle low at 45.50), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
WMT did a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which indicates that WMT has very likely bottomed. Also, there's a bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday 8-1's candle.
SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) hit a Wave A cycle low (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) of an intermediate term downcycle on Monday. If you have long positions when SPX's Wave B peaks in a week or so (use the Elliott Wave count to time Wave B, and, a large bearish spike may occur on the candle the day it peaks), it makes sense to seriously consider taking some profits.
Now for the trading stocks:
I day traded the Ultra Long SPX ETF SSO (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sso) today, buying it at 86.50 and selling it less than 23 minutes later at 87.534. I used the intraday Elliott Wave count to day trade it. I'm going to look to day trade SSO and/or the Ultra Short SPX ETF SDS every day, and, may day trade other ETFs/stocks if there are good entry points/intraday charts. A good entry point for SSO is likely to occur early on Monday.
MTTG.OB (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?mttb), a beneficiary of the Minnesota bridge collapse (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/mttgob-is-beneficiary-of-minnesota.html), plunged dramatically Monday and Tuesday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=mttg.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle that is probably in Wave C down.
It looks like MTTG.OB is doing a huge Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in Wave 2 down, and, volume may dry up, so, risk is high right now, so be careful if you trade this one. I'll look to/may buy MTTG.OB in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
JASO had a huge day on Tuesday (strong follow through at Wednesday's open) and hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. I'll look to buy JASO in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle. The short term Wave 2 down may have bottomed early yesterday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=jaso&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.
JRCC (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc) got rocked by a poor earnings report, so, it needs to hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal again.
WWAT.OB hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat. Note the bullish large inverse spike on Monday's candle. WWAT.OB probably put in a Wave A of a short term Wave 2 cycle low at 1.65 yesterday (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wwat.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==). I'll look to buy late in the short term Wave 2 or early in the short term Wave 3 upcycle. It looks like WWAT needs to do Wave C of Wave C (yes, Wave C of Wave C) of the short term Wave 2 early on Monday, when I'll be looking to go long.
WFMI did a brief parabolic monthly upcycle that peaked at 46.74 yesterday, note the bearish large spike on yesterday's candle, and, it hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wfmi. It filled it's upside gap at 45.80 (created in May) yesterday, peaked at 46.74, then plunged dramatically, closing at 44.85 (got gaps?, closed today at 42.27). The dramatic decline indicates that WFMI probably entered Wave A down of a monthly downcycle yesterday. Often important cycle highs/lows occur shortly after gap filling action is completed. There's a downside likely breakaway gap at 37.04, which, assuming that gap remains unfilled (the bullish breakaway gap remains) after the monthly downcycle/Elliott Wave ABC down up down correction bottoms, I'll look to go long.
SOPO did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle that peaked at Tuesday's open, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal on Tuesday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sopo. Assuming the downside gap at 0.48 created at Monday's open remains unfilled (is a bullish breakaway gap) after the short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms (appears to have bottomed Wednesday at 0.55), I'll look to go long.
IOC did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ioc. Wave 2 down bottomed Tuesday at 25.40. IOC may have hit a minor intermediate term cycle high at 36.38 yesterday, note the very bearish very large spike on yesterday's candle, and, note the huge decline from 36.38 to the close at 31.01, which is a major warning sign. Since hitting an intermediate term cycle low in late June IOC has done an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern that may have peaked at 36.38 yesterday, so, one should avoid IOC right now. Even though IOC's monthly upcycle Elliott Wave count is/appears to be Wave 4 down or Wave 5 up, it's negated by the longer minor intermediate term cycle Elliott Wave count, and, the fact that a huge very bearish spike occurred yesterday, followed by a dramatic decline, which is a major warning sign.
HSOA did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?hsoa. Wave 4 down appears to have bottomed today at 4.97 (bullish inverse spike on today's candle). I'll look to go long on Monday.
TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta) may have bottomed on Tuesday, but, looking to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in a Wave 3 up probably makes sense if you plan to trade this stock. Keep in mind that TMTA has to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:10 PM
