Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Hit A Monthly Cycle Buy Signal Today
Reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hit a monthly cycle buy signal today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. WMT probably put in a monthly cycle low at 45.4779 on Wednesday 8-1 (bullish double bottom with Friday's cycle low at 45.50), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
WMT did a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which indicates that WMT has very likely bottomed. Also, there's a bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday 8-1's candle.
SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) probably hit a Wave A cycle low (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) of an intermediate term downcycle yesterday.
If you have long positions when SPX's Wave B peaks in a week or two (use the Elliott Wave count to time Wave B, and, a large bearish spike may occur on the candle the day it peaks), it makes sense to seriously consider taking some profits.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.51% versus SPX today, and, it became bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, so, some early weakness is likely tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.19% versus the XAU today, and, it became bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, so, some early weakness is likely tomorrow.
Fed credit for the 5 day period ending 8-1-07 rose a substantial +$7.417 Billion, which helped SPX/WMT to bottom, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Also, Fed credit was a massive $17 Billion on punch spiking Thursday and a large $9.50 Billion yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Computer program index fund buying (and selling) is a huge factor, with SPX being the key lead index.
Now for the trading stocks:
MTTG.OB, a beneficiary of the Minnesota bridge collapse (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/mttgob-is-beneficiary-of-minnesota.html), plunged dramatically yesterday and today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=mttg.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle that obviously appears to have completed Wave A down.
It looks like MTTG.OB will do a huge Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in Wave 2 down, and, volume may dry up, so, risk is high right now, so be careful if you trade this one. I'll look to/may buy MTTG.OB in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
JASO had a huge day today and hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. I'll look to buy JASO in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
JRCC hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal and has entered a short term Wave 3 up, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc. I'll look to buy on (substantial) weakness tomorrow, but, JRCC had a huge spike at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=jrcc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, one may have to wait for Wave 5 before trading this. I'll reassess/take another look at this tomorrow.
WWAT hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle. I'll look to buy WWAT in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
WFMI is doing a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wfmi. It's trying to fill an upside gap at 45.80 created in May. There's a downside likely breakaway gap at 37.04, which, assuming that gap remains unfilled (the bullish breakaway gap remains) after the upcoming short term Wave 2 downcycle/correction bottoms, I'll look to go long.
SOPO did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle that peaked at today's open, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sopo. Assuming the downside gap at 0.48 created at yesterday's open remains unfilled (is a bullish breakaway gap) after the short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms, I'll look to go long.
IOC did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ioc. Wave 2 down appears to have bottomed today at 25.40, but, one could wait for the Wave 2 downtrend line to be broken before buying this.
HSOA did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?hsoa. Wave 2 down appears to have bottomed today at 5.11, which means that the downside gap at 4.73 is probably a bullish breakaway gap. One could wait for the Wave 2 downtrend line to be broken before buying this. I'll look to go long tomorrow.
TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta) may have bottomed Friday, but, looking to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in a Wave 3 up probably makes sense if you plan to trade this stock. Keep in mind that TMTA has to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
WMT did a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal, which indicates that WMT has very likely bottomed. Also, there's a bullish large inverse spike on Wednesday 8-1's candle.
SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) probably hit a Wave A cycle low (see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) of an intermediate term downcycle yesterday.
If you have long positions when SPX's Wave B peaks in a week or two (use the Elliott Wave count to time Wave B, and, a large bearish spike may occur on the candle the day it peaks), it makes sense to seriously consider taking some profits.
The WMT Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.51% versus SPX today, and, it became bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, so, some early weakness is likely tomorrow.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.19% versus the XAU today, and, it became bearish toward session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=^XAU&t=1d&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=^hui,nem, so, some early weakness is likely tomorrow.
Fed credit for the 5 day period ending 8-1-07 rose a substantial +$7.417 Billion, which helped SPX/WMT to bottom, see http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/. Also, Fed credit was a massive $17 Billion on punch spiking Thursday and a large $9.50 Billion yesterday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Computer program index fund buying (and selling) is a huge factor, with SPX being the key lead index.
Now for the trading stocks:
MTTG.OB, a beneficiary of the Minnesota bridge collapse (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/mttgob-is-beneficiary-of-minnesota.html), plunged dramatically yesterday and today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=mttg.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, and, entered a Wave 2 short term downcycle that obviously appears to have completed Wave A down.
It looks like MTTG.OB will do a huge Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in Wave 2 down, and, volume may dry up, so, risk is high right now, so be careful if you trade this one. I'll look to/may buy MTTG.OB in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
JASO had a huge day today and hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jaso. I'll look to buy JASO in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
JRCC hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal and has entered a short term Wave 3 up, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?jrcc. I'll look to buy on (substantial) weakness tomorrow, but, JRCC had a huge spike at session's end, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=jrcc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, one may have to wait for Wave 5 before trading this. I'll reassess/take another look at this tomorrow.
WWAT hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wwat. Note the bullish large inverse spike on yesterday's candle. I'll look to buy WWAT in the short term Wave 2 down or early in a short term Wave 3 upcycle.
WFMI is doing a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wfmi. It's trying to fill an upside gap at 45.80 created in May. There's a downside likely breakaway gap at 37.04, which, assuming that gap remains unfilled (the bullish breakaway gap remains) after the upcoming short term Wave 2 downcycle/correction bottoms, I'll look to go long.
SOPO did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle that peaked at today's open, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal today, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?sopo. Assuming the downside gap at 0.48 created at yesterday's open remains unfilled (is a bullish breakaway gap) after the short term Wave 2 downcycle bottoms, I'll look to go long.
IOC did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?ioc. Wave 2 down appears to have bottomed today at 25.40, but, one could wait for the Wave 2 downtrend line to be broken before buying this.
HSOA did a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle, and, hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?hsoa. Wave 2 down appears to have bottomed today at 5.11, which means that the downside gap at 4.73 is probably a bullish breakaway gap. One could wait for the Wave 2 downtrend line to be broken before buying this. I'll look to go long tomorrow.
TMTA (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tmta) may have bottomed Friday, but, looking to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in a Wave 3 up probably makes sense if you plan to trade this stock. Keep in mind that TMTA has to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit a monthly cycle buy signal.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
