Trade the Cycles

Monday, August 06, 2007

It Looks Like WMT Bottomed Last Wednesday And SPX Is Bottoming Today

It looks like reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT bottomed (monthly cycle low) last Wednesday at 45.4779 (bullish double bottom at 45.50 just before Friday's close) and SPX is probably bottoming (Wave A of an intermediate term downcycle, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= and http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.

The WMT Lead Indicator is very bullish at well over +1.00% versus SPX (S & P 500) right now, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which is another strong indication that WMT and SPX have (WMT) or are (SPX) bottoming.

The usual Monday morning pop occurred followed by the usual fizzle. One rarely should chase strength at the open, especially on Monday.

Mortgage companies continue to get savaged. Here's one, http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ras, and note the dividend in excess of 35% now. Many are in the 15-20%+ range after the stocks have taken huge hits due to the mortgage/credit panic going on. There's a Fed FOMC meeting tomorrow, so, it'll be interesting to see what they say in their brief statement and in the detailed meeting minutes.

MTTG.OB, a beneficiary of the Minnesota bridge collapse (http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/08/mttgob-is-beneficiary-of-minnesota.html), plunged then rebounded dramatically early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=mttg.ob&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c==.

That's all for now. Ciao. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .