.......HUI/NEM/XAU Wave A May Have Bottomed
Wave A of the major downcycle (especially HUI/XAU) that began in early December for HUI/NEM/XAU MAY have bottomed. Note on HUI's six month chart the large inverse spike that tends to mark important cycle lows, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. Also, HUI/NEM/XAU did Elliott Wave ABC down up down patterns, and, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bullish +3.25% versus the XAU last week, and, the WMT Lead Indicator was a very bullish +3.23% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) last week.
Weakness for a day or two is expected after likely early strength tomorrow, since a very short term Wave 5 cycle high should occur for HUI/NEM/XAU (probably early) on Monday. But, I'll be analyzing whether Wave A of the major downcycle that began in early December for HUI/NEM/XAU has bottomed. Shorts/put option traders should probably stick to very short term trading early this week.
Obviously a lot depends on the S & P 500 (SPX) due to index fund program trading, which is a huge factor (about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), and, is a great reason why major or even minor/very short term manipulation of gold/silver (securitized in ETFs: GLD, IAU, SLV, which means they're affected by program trading) or gold/silver stocks is virtually impossible. Note how HUI follows SPX, which follows WMT, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=wmt&c=%5EGSPC.
If SPX experiences a significant decline early this week, as appears likely, then HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave A may make substantially lower lows. I don't have great insight right now into whether HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave A has bottomed. Tomorrow's action and indicator readings may change that. I wanted to point out the possibility that HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave A may have bottomed. The large inverse spike on HUI's six month chart may mark an important Wave A cycle low.
The NEM Lead Indicator and the WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator were slightly bullish (NEM Lead Indicator was +0.22% versus the XAU) and modestly bearish on Friday (WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was -0.21% versus the S & P 500 (SPX)), which portends weakness after likely early strength in HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX on Monday.
The Fed has been going nuts spiking the punch since December 14, which points to strength once Wave B begins, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Thursday's credit was a massive $23.75 Billion in repos.NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.
HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Weakness for a day or two is expected after likely early strength tomorrow, since a very short term Wave 5 cycle high should occur for HUI/NEM/XAU (probably early) on Monday. But, I'll be analyzing whether Wave A of the major downcycle that began in early December for HUI/NEM/XAU has bottomed. Shorts/put option traders should probably stick to very short term trading early this week.
Obviously a lot depends on the S & P 500 (SPX) due to index fund program trading, which is a huge factor (about 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE), and, is a great reason why major or even minor/very short term manipulation of gold/silver (securitized in ETFs: GLD, IAU, SLV, which means they're affected by program trading) or gold/silver stocks is virtually impossible. Note how HUI follows SPX, which follows WMT, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=wmt&c=%5EGSPC.
If SPX experiences a significant decline early this week, as appears likely, then HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave A may make substantially lower lows. I don't have great insight right now into whether HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave A has bottomed. Tomorrow's action and indicator readings may change that. I wanted to point out the possibility that HUI/NEM/XAU's Wave A may have bottomed. The large inverse spike on HUI's six month chart may mark an important Wave A cycle low.
The NEM Lead Indicator and the WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator were slightly bullish (NEM Lead Indicator was +0.22% versus the XAU) and modestly bearish on Friday (WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was -0.21% versus the S & P 500 (SPX)), which portends weakness after likely early strength in HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX on Monday.
The Fed has been going nuts spiking the punch since December 14, which points to strength once Wave B begins, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Thursday's credit was a massive $23.75 Billion in repos.NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.
HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:10 PM
