..................Reliable Elliott Wave Patterns
It's amazing how reliable the Elliott Wave Patterns tend to be, even on an intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==. As discussed yesterday, HUI started an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up rally shortly before noon yesterday/Friday, when a double bottom cycle low occurred. Wave 1 peaked at 12:15ish, then Wave 3 peaked shortly after 2:30 pm, and, Wave 5 began during the last half hour, which points to early (probably short lived) strength on Monday.
Notice that Wave 3 up, from 12:30ish pm until a little after 2:30 pm, did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, AND, Wave 4 down, that bottomed at 3:30ish, did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern. Amazing stuff.
Implied Volatility portends some weakness on Monday, because it rose +0.76% to
32.945 on 1-5 from 32.695 on 1-4 versus a -1.02% decline in the XAU on 1-5, which is a +0.26% rise in complacency that portends some weakness on Monday, because the XAU wall of worry fell -0.26% = +0.76% + -1.02%.
The NEM Lead Indicator and the WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator were slightly bullish (NEM Lead Indicator was +0.22% versus the XAU) and modestly bearish today (WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was -0.21% versus the S & P 500 (SPX)), which portends weakness after likely early strength in HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX on Monday.
The Fed has been going nuts spiking the punch since December 14, which points to strength once Wave B begins, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Thursday's credit was a massive $23.75 Billion in repos.
NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.
HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Notice that Wave 3 up, from 12:30ish pm until a little after 2:30 pm, did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, AND, Wave 4 down, that bottomed at 3:30ish, did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern. Amazing stuff.
Implied Volatility portends some weakness on Monday, because it rose +0.76% to
32.945 on 1-5 from 32.695 on 1-4 versus a -1.02% decline in the XAU on 1-5, which is a +0.26% rise in complacency that portends some weakness on Monday, because the XAU wall of worry fell -0.26% = +0.76% + -1.02%.
The NEM Lead Indicator and the WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator were slightly bullish (NEM Lead Indicator was +0.22% versus the XAU) and modestly bearish today (WMT (Walmart) Lead Indicator was -0.21% versus the S & P 500 (SPX)), which portends weakness after likely early strength in HUI/NEM/XAU/SPX on Monday.
The Fed has been going nuts spiking the punch since December 14, which points to strength once Wave B begins, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Thursday's credit was a massive $23.75 Billion in repos.
NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.
HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 6, 7, and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:04 PM
