.......HUI/XAU Are In Wave C Of Wave A Down
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave A down, since hitting minor intermediate term cycle highs on 12-5-06, see charts 1 and 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 6 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. If HUI's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline turns up it might bottom at 220ish.
Notice that SPX (S & P 500) weakness has led to most of the HUI/NEM/XAU weakness in recent days due to index fund program selling, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. About 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE (the money involved in the trading) is due to index fund program trading.
The manipulation theory gold/silver writers are dead wrong with a vengeance, gold and silver are securitized now (GLD, IAU, SLV), and, are affected by program trading. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's 5+ year Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, while silver did even better at 35-40%/year on average in it's 4.5 year Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from late 2001 until May 2006. Even very minor manipulation for a few hours is almost impossible due to index fund program trading.
The gold writers who harp on manipulation need something to blame for their lack of understanding and failures. If gold and silver were victims of major manipulation/suppression, why would anyone want to invest in them???????? Does 30-35%/year on average for slightly over FIVE YEARS sound like a candidate for major manipulation???????????????? The precious metals sector seems to have the most clueless writers when it comes to market timing. Some of course are self serving slimebags, while most are simply clueless dipsticks.
How it can be in your self interest to look like a total jackass and/or lowlife is beyond me. Many of these jackass gold/silver writers are ruining lives. In most cases these guys/gals are just clueless and don't even understand where the primary trendlines are, which is BASIC technical analysis.
The XAU filled it's downside gap at 132.67 early today. The XAU created an upside gap at 134.41 today and one yesterday at 136.95. NEM has an upside gap from today's open at 44. Watch NEM's downside gaps at 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
The Fed has been going nuts spiking the punch since December 14, which points to strength once Wave B up begins, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Yesterday's credit was a massive $23.75 Billion in repos.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Notice that SPX (S & P 500) weakness has led to most of the HUI/NEM/XAU weakness in recent days due to index fund program selling, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC. About 70% of the dollar volume on the NYSE (the money involved in the trading) is due to index fund program trading.
The manipulation theory gold/silver writers are dead wrong with a vengeance, gold and silver are securitized now (GLD, IAU, SLV), and, are affected by program trading. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's 5+ year Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from April 2001 until May 2006, while silver did even better at 35-40%/year on average in it's 4.5 year Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market from late 2001 until May 2006. Even very minor manipulation for a few hours is almost impossible due to index fund program trading.
The gold writers who harp on manipulation need something to blame for their lack of understanding and failures. If gold and silver were victims of major manipulation/suppression, why would anyone want to invest in them???????? Does 30-35%/year on average for slightly over FIVE YEARS sound like a candidate for major manipulation???????????????? The precious metals sector seems to have the most clueless writers when it comes to market timing. Some of course are self serving slimebags, while most are simply clueless dipsticks.
How it can be in your self interest to look like a total jackass and/or lowlife is beyond me. Many of these jackass gold/silver writers are ruining lives. In most cases these guys/gals are just clueless and don't even understand where the primary trendlines are, which is BASIC technical analysis.
The XAU filled it's downside gap at 132.67 early today. The XAU created an upside gap at 134.41 today and one yesterday at 136.95. NEM has an upside gap from today's open at 44. Watch NEM's downside gaps at 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
The Fed has been going nuts spiking the punch since December 14, which points to strength once Wave B up begins, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Yesterday's credit was a massive $23.75 Billion in repos.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts one and two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:54 AM
