HUI Broke It's Straight Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle Trendline Today
HUI clearly broke it's straight minor intermediate term upcycle trendline (since 10-4-06) today (I'll probably do a chart this weekend), which isn't surprising since HUI's parabolic minor intermediate term upcycle trendline (since 10-4-06) clearly broke down on 12-7, when it flashed a 2% follow through sell signal, see chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Parabolic shaped cycle trendlines (in concert with Elliott Wave and gaps) get one out well ahead of traditional straight trendlines.
Notice in the 5 day SPX (S & P 500) chart versus HUI at the link below that SPX held HUI together much of this week. Once SPX began a modest downtrend today HUI quickly fell sharply, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EGSPC&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=%5Ehui. Also notice that, even when SPX was trending up, when it briefly declined intraday HUI plunged. What will happen when SPX falls sharply? HUI/XAU are likely to decline dramatically.
HUI/XAU were in an intraday Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle towards session's end and need to do the third/Wave 5 upcycle, so, it looks like they will experience brief strength on Monday followed by a potentially sharp drop, because SPX appears to be in a short term and possibly also an important minor intermediate term downcycle since early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EGSPC&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=%5Ehui.
The US Dollar closed near it's session cycle high today at 83.75ish, up +0.40. Severe weakness may occur on Monday for HUI/NEM/XAU.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU has downside gaps at 138.37, and 132.67. NEM has downside gaps at 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
NEM clearly broke it's minor intermediate term upcycle trendline since 10-4-06 on Tuesday, so, the vicious decline may soon rear it's head in a big way.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Notice in the 5 day SPX (S & P 500) chart versus HUI at the link below that SPX held HUI together much of this week. Once SPX began a modest downtrend today HUI quickly fell sharply, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EGSPC&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=%5Ehui. Also notice that, even when SPX was trending up, when it briefly declined intraday HUI plunged. What will happen when SPX falls sharply? HUI/XAU are likely to decline dramatically.
HUI/XAU were in an intraday Elliott Wave 12345 upcycle towards session's end and need to do the third/Wave 5 upcycle, so, it looks like they will experience brief strength on Monday followed by a potentially sharp drop, because SPX appears to be in a short term and possibly also an important minor intermediate term downcycle since early today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EGSPC&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=%5Ehui.
The US Dollar closed near it's session cycle high today at 83.75ish, up +0.40. Severe weakness may occur on Monday for HUI/NEM/XAU.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU has downside gaps at 138.37, and 132.67. NEM has downside gaps at 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
NEM clearly broke it's minor intermediate term upcycle trendline since 10-4-06 on Tuesday, so, the vicious decline may soon rear it's head in a big way.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:13 PM
