NEM's Very Short Term Wave B Upcycle Appears To Have Peaked
Reliable lead indicator NEM closely approached it's likely minor intermediate term cycle high that occurred at 47.80 on 12-8, hitting a likely Very Short Term Wave B Upcycle cycle high at 47.77 early today.
Yesterday and today's modest HUI/NEM/XAU strength was largely due to index fund computer program buying due to significant S & P 500 (SPX) strength, with the Fed doing their usual Thursday punch spiking ($16.25 Billion in Repos, large even for a Thursday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), and, they spiked the punch again today, with an above average $8.25 Billion Repo.
The modest HUI/NEM/XAU strength (HUI has actually trended down since early Wednesday) in the face of significant SPX strength, and, how bullish the NEM Lead Indicator has been recently (+0.22% versus the XAU on 12-13, +1.01% on 12-12, -0.10% on 12-11, +1.01% on 12-8, +0.87% on 12-7, +0.27% on 12-6, +1.19% on 12-5, ) is a very bearish sign.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI has been in a very flat downcycle since EARLY Wednesday, how's that for bearish? See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.58% versus the XAU yesterday. The US Dollar closed near it's session cycle high yesterday at 83.35ish, up +0.29, versus a session cycle low at 82.85ish. Severe weakness may set in today or Monday for HUI/NEM/XAU.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU has downside gaps at 138.37, and 132.67. NEM has downside gaps at 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
NEM clearly broke it's minor intermediate term upcycle trendline since 10-4-06 on Tuesday, so, the vicious decline may soon rear it's head in a big way.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Yesterday and today's modest HUI/NEM/XAU strength was largely due to index fund computer program buying due to significant S & P 500 (SPX) strength, with the Fed doing their usual Thursday punch spiking ($16.25 Billion in Repos, large even for a Thursday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), and, they spiked the punch again today, with an above average $8.25 Billion Repo.
The modest HUI/NEM/XAU strength (HUI has actually trended down since early Wednesday) in the face of significant SPX strength, and, how bullish the NEM Lead Indicator has been recently (+0.22% versus the XAU on 12-13, +1.01% on 12-12, -0.10% on 12-11, +1.01% on 12-8, +0.87% on 12-7, +0.27% on 12-6, +1.19% on 12-5, ) is a very bearish sign.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $525ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $525-550 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI has been in a very flat downcycle since EARLY Wednesday, how's that for bearish? See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.58% versus the XAU yesterday. The US Dollar closed near it's session cycle high yesterday at 83.35ish, up +0.29, versus a session cycle low at 82.85ish. Severe weakness may set in today or Monday for HUI/NEM/XAU.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU has downside gaps at 138.37, and 132.67. NEM has downside gaps at 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83.
NEM clearly broke it's minor intermediate term upcycle trendline since 10-4-06 on Tuesday, so, the vicious decline may soon rear it's head in a big way.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:39 AM
