Watch Reliable Lead Indicator NEM's Elliott Wave Patterns
Watch reliable lead indicator NEM's Elliott Wave patterns. Since hitting a minor intermediate term cycle cycle high at 47.80 on 12-8 NEM did an Elliott Wave ABC down up down downcycle pattern that bottomed early yesterday, then proceeded to do an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up upcycle pattern, that was in the third/Wave 5 upcycle at session's end today (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c==), so, early tomorrow NEM will probably turn down, and, the weakness for HUI/XAU is likely to become severe, as NEM's weakness increases.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU has downside gaps at 138.37, and 132.67. NEM has downside gaps at 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. The XAU has a bearish breakaway gap to the downside at 144.96 from yesterday's open.
NEM clearly broke it's minor intermediate term upcycle trendline since 10-4-06 yesterday, so, the vicious decline may rear it's head in a big way the next few days. Option expiration is on Friday, and, I think it's a triple or quadruple "witching" quarterly one, so, that will probably add to the volatility. There's a good chance that the next few days will bring brutal declines (HUI was down about 3% at yesterday's cycle low).
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
The XAU has downside gaps at 138.37, and 132.67. NEM has downside gaps at 45.73, 44.88, 44.03, 42.21, 41.83, 41.09, and 40.83. The XAU has a bearish breakaway gap to the downside at 144.96 from yesterday's open.
NEM clearly broke it's minor intermediate term upcycle trendline since 10-4-06 yesterday, so, the vicious decline may rear it's head in a big way the next few days. Option expiration is on Friday, and, I think it's a triple or quadruple "witching" quarterly one, so, that will probably add to the volatility. There's a good chance that the next few days will bring brutal declines (HUI was down about 3% at yesterday's cycle low).
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:08 PM
