Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

NEM Underperformed the XAU by -0.11% Today

Which is a sign that there's probably more downside tomorrow. As I discuss in the weekly updates, a sign to look to buy when it appears the time is near is to look for the NEM Lead Indicator to be bullish, hopefully at +0.50% or greater versus the XAU. Note that HUI's downside gap at 245.01 and the XAU's at 115.10, both from 11-21's open, were filled today as expected.

Another positive sign and a tool that may become part of my system is that VIX, the S & P 500 Volatility Index (SPX options implied volatility gauge), rose +1.43% today versus a -0.64% decline in the S & P 500 (SPX), which is a significant +0.79% rise in fear that portends SPX strength for part of tomorrow's session. This is important because NEM is in the S & P 500, so SPX index funds buy NEM on SPX strength and sell NEM on SPX weakness like today. So, the significant rise in fear today is a plus for NEM's prospects tomorrow. The most important thing to look for tomorrow though is for the NEM Lead Indicator to be bullish, hopefully at +0.50% or greater. Ciao

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