The Downside Gaps From 11-21 For HUI and the XAU Will Probably Get Filled Today
It looks like HUI will fill it's downside gap at 245.01 from 11-21 today (or tomorrow) and the XAU will fill it's downside gap from 11-21 at 115.10. Then the monthly upcycle Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle should begin shortly thereafter. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell slightly over 5% to 0.64003 today from 0.67391 yesterday which is a very sharp rise in complacency that portends weakness today. XAU Implied Volatility rose slightly to 30.005 yesterday vs 29.945 on 11-28 vs a -0.69% decline in the XAU yesterday which is a significant rise in complacency that portends weakness today. Those indicators clearly indicate that the downside gaps from 11-21 will get filled.
The NEM Lead Indicator is bullish yet again today at about +0.25% as I write this and was +0.14% yesterday and a very bullish +1.63% on 11-28. The NEM Lead Indicator clearly says that a monthly upcycle remains in effect and that it's probably safe to trade the Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle that may begin today or tomorrow.
NEM's half session downcycle from 48 on 11-28 to 47.16 on 11-29 was probably Elliot Wave A down of the Elliot Wave 4 short term downcycle, then it appears that Wave B up lasted about 3 hours yesterday for NEM and Wave C down began near session's end yesterday, which explains the plunge today that probably will fill 11-21's gaps, and then the monthly upcycle Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle should occur shortly thereafter.
The NEM Lead Indicator is bullish yet again today at about +0.25% as I write this and was +0.14% yesterday and a very bullish +1.63% on 11-28. The NEM Lead Indicator clearly says that a monthly upcycle remains in effect and that it's probably safe to trade the Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle that may begin today or tomorrow.
NEM's half session downcycle from 48 on 11-28 to 47.16 on 11-29 was probably Elliot Wave A down of the Elliot Wave 4 short term downcycle, then it appears that Wave B up lasted about 3 hours yesterday for NEM and Wave C down began near session's end yesterday, which explains the plunge today that probably will fill 11-21's gaps, and then the monthly upcycle Elliot Wave 5 short term upcycle should occur shortly thereafter.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:57 AM
5 Comments:
Just a note of a noncycle (or a cycle accentuating) item:
Last night the COMEX gave notice of margins being raised in precious metals. Margins as of tonight will be 33% higher in gold, from $1,350 to $2,025. Silver will be raised to $2,363 from $2,025.
IMO, this is an attempt at a gift to the commercial shorts by flushing some overextended longs. The exchage has done this sort of thing in the past in attempts to bail out shorts when big moves occurred. Maybe this one is in anticipation of a big upmove if countermeasures aren't taken.
By
Jeff, at 9:20 AM
Thanks for the info Jeff. Depending on when that action was taken it'll be interesting to see this week's COT data, which is as of Tuesday 11-29, on Friday.
I imagine that the COMEX's action
was taken today.
Gold lags gold stocks and the XAU Put/Call Ratio, a great indicator, is very bearish today, so the COMEX action's effect may not be
noticeable in the gold stock market.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 9:33 AM
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
By
Jeff, at 11:33 AM
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
By
Jeff, at 11:36 AM
The margin change is verified:
http://www.nymex.com/notice_to_member.aspx?id=ntm540&archive=2005
By
Jeff, at 7:53 PM
Post a Comment
<< Home