GDX/HUI/XAU Are Doing Wave 5 of the Wave 5 Monthly Upcycle in Rollover Mode
GDX/HUI/XAU are doing Wave 5 of the Wave 5 Monthly Upcycle since mid January 2009, in deceptive rollover mode, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx.
In previous updates I discussed the possibility of this upside surprise (from mid January 2009 until 1-26-09 GDX/HUI/XAU did an up down up pattern, so, the usual third Wave 5 upcycle was a definite possibility), and, the fact that GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 5 upcycle (began in mid January 2009) hadn't done the usual third Wave 5 upcycle as of 1-26-09, when the Wave 5 upcycle and therefore the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle (since late October 2008) appeared to peak. The power of Elliott Wave patterns is again illustrated.
This is a good sign from a big picture point of view for GDX/HUI/XAU and the gold/silver sector in general, that they are completing the usual Wave 5 of Wave 5 upcycle. It's obviously a bearish sign when an index's upcycle fails to do the usual Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern.
Note that reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM is doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, did put in a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high on 1-26-09, reliably leading the sector to the downside, so, chasing the current strength is risky, from a minor intermediate term cycle point of view.
One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise.
The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and I assume gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.
The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator is super bearish, at +0.61% versus the XAU today/on 2-11, -0.43% on 2-10, -0.03% on 2-9, -0.76% on 2-6, -0.45% on 2-5, -0.12% on 2-4, -1.14% on 2-3, +2.43% on 2-2, +2.04% on 1-30, -1.97% on 1-29, -5.87% on 1-28, -2.09% on 1-27, -1.35% on 1-26, -0.32% on 1-23.
The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past two weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for the second straight week, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM created a downside gap at 39.35 at today 2-11's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal the week before last, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
Yesterday 2-10-09's action confirms that 1-28-09's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high was a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, so, SPX (S & P 500) is in a big short term Wave C downcycle since 1-28-09's cycle high, of the Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09, and, I'm now looking to hold ultra short positions overnight.
Early on 2-9-09 SPX (S & P 500) entered Wave C of the big short term Wave C downcycle since 1-28-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Early SPX/market weakness is likely tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, since SPX (S & P 500) put in a large bearish spike late in the session. The very short term Wave A downcycle since early on 2-9-09 might have bottomed late today 2-11-09, but, it's doubtful.
The best short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top yesterday 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. Yesterday 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.
I'll be looking to day trade NDX ultra short via QID again tomorrow, and, I'll look to hold a QID position overnight, once the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) completes a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle.
Today I did a 2 minute 46 second QID trade and made nearly 10 cents/share = nearly $100 for each 1000 shares traded.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has a bearish medium spike on a bearish red (close below the open) candle yesterday 2-10-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Yesterday's very bullish broad market WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.74% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on 2-10 (-0.86% on 2-9, -0.49% on 2-6, +2.97% on 2-5, -2.16% on 2-4, +1.08% on 2-3, -1.12% on 2-2, +0.73% on 1-30, +1.52% on 1-29, -3.48% on 1-28), plus today 2-11's modestly bullish +0.27%, suggests that a substantial SPX/market rebound will occur tomorrow, probably after early weakness.
Complacency rose very sharply/the SPX wall of worry fell very sharply today 2-11-09, because VIX (SPX Volatility Index) fell -4.52%, versus SPX (S & P 500) rising +0.80%, which is a very sharp +3.72% rise in complacency/-3.72% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to potentially severe weakness early tomorrow 2-12-09.
The five day intraday broad market WMT Lead Indicator closed at/near neutral today (near +0.00%), which is obviously a neutral indication, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) is still in Wave 4 down of the short term upcycle since 2-2 (46.25 cycle low), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. It looks like WMT will try to fill it's downside gap at 47.72 (created at today 2-11's open, 46.42 is the next one after that) early tomorrow.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.28, 49.63, 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 47.72 and 46.42. SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 869.89 (created on 2-10) and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness/short term Wave A and Wave C downcycles for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low in the next few weeks (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.99% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-11, it was +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
In previous updates I discussed the possibility of this upside surprise (from mid January 2009 until 1-26-09 GDX/HUI/XAU did an up down up pattern, so, the usual third Wave 5 upcycle was a definite possibility), and, the fact that GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 5 upcycle (began in mid January 2009) hadn't done the usual third Wave 5 upcycle as of 1-26-09, when the Wave 5 upcycle and therefore the Wave 1 minor intermediate term upcycle (since late October 2008) appeared to peak. The power of Elliott Wave patterns is again illustrated.
This is a good sign from a big picture point of view for GDX/HUI/XAU and the gold/silver sector in general, that they are completing the usual Wave 5 of Wave 5 upcycle. It's obviously a bearish sign when an index's upcycle fails to do the usual Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern.
Note that reliable gold/silver sector lead indicator NEM is doing a short term countertrend Wave B upcycle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem, and, did put in a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high on 1-26-09, reliably leading the sector to the downside, so, chasing the current strength is risky, from a minor intermediate term cycle point of view.
One needs to wait for a 3 to 6 week GDX/HUI/XAU Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, before a good entry point will arise.
The gold ETF GLD (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) and I assume gold also took out their recent cycle highs that occurred on 2-2-09 and 1-30-09, that appeared to be a Wave 1 minor intermediate term cycle high.
The reliable gold/silver sector NEM Lead Indicator is super bearish, at +0.61% versus the XAU today/on 2-11, -0.43% on 2-10, -0.03% on 2-9, -0.76% on 2-6, -0.45% on 2-5, -0.12% on 2-4, -1.14% on 2-3, +2.43% on 2-2, +2.04% on 1-30, -1.97% on 1-29, -5.87% on 1-28, -2.09% on 1-27, -1.35% on 1-26, -0.32% on 1-23.
The bearish short term and minor intermediate term scenario jives with the bearish gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) data the past two weeks. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders traded aggressively short for the second straight week, see the third/last data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.
GDX (Gold Miners ETF, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) has downside gaps at 31.46, 29.13, 25.41, and 23.23. NEM created a downside gap at 39.35 at today 2-11's open.
Gold hit a 5% major buy signal the week before last, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, which indicates that gold very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008.
Note that gold did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down pattern, from the 3-17-08 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $1033.90, to the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low at $681 in late October 2008, see the second weekly view chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. Note also, that in both the first daily view chart and the second weekly view chart, that gold has a very large bullish inverse spike at the $681 cycle low in late October 2008.
Yesterday 2-10-09's action confirms that 1-28-09's SPX (S & P 500) cycle high was a short term countertrend Wave B cycle high, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, so, SPX (S & P 500) is in a big short term Wave C downcycle since 1-28-09's cycle high, of the Wave A minor intermediate term downcycle since 1-6-09, and, I'm now looking to hold ultra short positions overnight.
Early on 2-9-09 SPX (S & P 500) entered Wave C of the big short term Wave C downcycle since 1-28-09, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Early SPX/market weakness is likely tomorrow, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c=, since SPX (S & P 500) put in a large bearish spike late in the session. The very short term Wave A downcycle since early on 2-9-09 might have bottomed late today 2-11-09, but, it's doubtful.
The best short now appears to be the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx, which put in a slightly higher bearish double top yesterday 2-10-09 at 1286.90 (countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term cycle high), versus early January 2009's cycle high at 1286.08. Yesterday 2-10-09's cycle high was the countertrend Wave B minor intermediate term upcycle peaking in dramatic rollover mode at 1286.90 (similar to countertrend Wave B action, but, surprising modestly to the upside), versus the early January 2009 cycle high at 1286.08.
I'll be looking to day trade NDX ultra short via QID again tomorrow, and, I'll look to hold a QID position overnight, once the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) completes a very short term countertrend Wave B upcycle.
Today I did a 2 minute 46 second QID trade and made nearly 10 cents/share = nearly $100 for each 1000 shares traded.
NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has a bearish medium spike on a bearish red (close below the open) candle yesterday 2-10-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
Yesterday's very bullish broad market WMT Lead Indicator, at +1.74% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) on 2-10 (-0.86% on 2-9, -0.49% on 2-6, +2.97% on 2-5, -2.16% on 2-4, +1.08% on 2-3, -1.12% on 2-2, +0.73% on 1-30, +1.52% on 1-29, -3.48% on 1-28), plus today 2-11's modestly bullish +0.27%, suggests that a substantial SPX/market rebound will occur tomorrow, probably after early weakness.
Complacency rose very sharply/the SPX wall of worry fell very sharply today 2-11-09, because VIX (SPX Volatility Index) fell -4.52%, versus SPX (S & P 500) rising +0.80%, which is a very sharp +3.72% rise in complacency/-3.72% decline in the SPX wall of worry, that points to potentially severe weakness early tomorrow 2-12-09.
The five day intraday broad market WMT Lead Indicator closed at/near neutral today (near +0.00%), which is obviously a neutral indication, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.
Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) is still in Wave 4 down of the short term upcycle since 2-2 (46.25 cycle low), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. It looks like WMT will try to fill it's downside gap at 47.72 (created at today 2-11's open, 46.42 is the next one after that) early tomorrow.
WMT has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 49.28, 49.63, 50.56, 52.12, and 55.54, and, has downside gaps at 47.72 and 46.42. SPX (S & P 500) has bearish breakaway upside gaps at 869.89 (created on 2-10) and 934.70, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
SPX (S & P 500) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07, NDX (NASDAQ 100) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since very late October 2007, and, RUT (Russell 2000) has been in a Cyclical Bear Market since July 2007.
Reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) huge very bearish breakaway type gap down on 1-8-09 from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, portended the recent/current substantial weakness/short term Wave A and Wave C downcycles for WMT/SPX and the market/most indexes/sectors.
There's a good chance that SPX (S & P 500, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) will take out it's November 2008 cycle low (the 1-6-09 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high), and, that reliable broad market Lead Indicator Walmart (WMT) will take out it's October 2008 cycle low in the next few weeks (the early December 2008 cycle high is a likely countertrend Wave B cycle high).
The XOM (Exxon Mobil) Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.99% versus the XOI (AMEX Oil and Gas) today/on 2-11, it was +0.77% on 2-10, -1.43% on 2-9, -1.06% on 2-6, +1.50% on 2-5, -1.06% on 2-4, -0.49% on 2-3, +1.86% on 2-2, +0.92% on 1-30, +0.80% on 1-29, -2.15% on 1-28, +0.37% on 1-27, -2.11% on 1-26, -2.41% on 1-23, +1.36% on 1-22, -1.43% on 1-21.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) hit a 5% follow through major buy signal on Wednesday 12-10-08 (see annotated chart one at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), breaking the multi month Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line since mid March 2008 by more than 5%, see HUI at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=, and, see the XAU at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, which means that they very likely entered a Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market in late October 2008. Note that HUI has a very bullish triple bottom in late October 2008. Trade the Cycles is now obviously on a buy signal for GDX/HUI/XAU.
Keep in mind/major warning that, not all gold/silver stocks have the same cycles. They can be vastly different. CDE (Coeur D' Alene Mines) has/had a bear market from/since 2004 for example, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cde&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Harmony Gold (HMY) is another stock that's been in a bear market since 2002, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=hmy&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
Since this is a Wave 3 HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau) Cyclical Bull Market, it's likely to be a great one, since Wave 3 upcycles tend to be considerably larger than Wave 1 upcycles.
The gold/silver stock apocalypse since May 2006 (reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM since 1-31-06 and GDX/HUI/XAU since mid March 2008) is probably finally over for many/most gold/silver stocks, see the XAU's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, and, see reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM's daily candlestick chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. Reliable gold sector lead indicator NEM put in a bullish double bottom in late October/late November 2008 at 21.40/21.17.
My original Trade the Cycles system uses the reliable Elliott Wave patterns (see the Trade the Cycles charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) and maps them to cycles of various timeframes (an Elliott Wave is either an upcycle or a downcycle), from very short term (hours/days), short term (days/weeks), monthly (4-7 weeks), minor intermediate term (2-3 months), major intermediate term (3-12 months), long term (1 to 2 years), Cyclical Bull/Bear Market (6 months to 7 years, yes, a bull/bear can be relatively brief), Secular Bull/Bear Market (8-20+ years).
Gaps are very important also, since most gaps get filled and they often provide insight into when cycle highs/lows will occur.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:20 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home