Broad Market Lead Indicator Walmart's (WMT) Bullish But Countertrend Double Bottom Launch Pad
Broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) created a bullish but very likely countertrend double bottom launch pad at 46.25 (on 2-2) and 46.29 (on 2-4) this week, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt.
This means that WMT is in Wave 3 up (up down up since 2-2's cycle low at 46.25), or, is early in Wave 4 down, of the oversold bounce/attempted (likely failure) gap filling action (a huge very bearish gap down from 55.54 occurred on 1-8-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) since 2-2's cycle low at 46.25.
This also means that SPX (S & P 500) is probably in Wave 5 up of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since mid January (was calling it a short term upcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, will probably try and fail to fill it's upside gap at 934.70.
Note that, from the mid January cycle high that occurred after WMT bounced following the huge gap down from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, WMT did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle, to the important 46.25 cycle low that occurred last Monday 2-2-09.
Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 patterns are highly useful, as regular readers obviously already know. I use them every day on the intraday charts when day trading.
Some great trading opportunities are approaching. Some great shorting opportunities will arise once SPX (S & P 500) trys and probably fails to fill it's upside gap at 934.70, and, after WMT trys and probably fails to fill it's upside gap at 55.54.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short overnight (holding a position or two overnight) via SDS (UltraShort S & P 500 ETF), TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF), QID (UltraShort NASDAQ 100 ETF), DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), FAZ (3 times Finance Bear, a lot of daredevils are trading the relatively new 3 times ETFs), etc, and, of course, I'll also day trade.
Once GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) complete the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-26-09 (gold peaked on 1-30-09, GLD on 2-2-09, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) or soon will (as discussed in a previous post, some upside surprise is possible, but, one still needs to wait for a nasty correction/Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, from an understanding of cycles one knows that it HAS TO OCCUR), a great long trading opportunity should arise.
Based upon the nature of cycles, since GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began mid March 2008) just bottomed in late October 2008 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx), they should decline dramatically in the near future, such that the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market's rising bottoms uptrend begins relatively flat. Upcycles and downcycles trendlines almost always begin relatively flat, and, tend to become increasingly parabolic/sharply rising over time.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) and gold have been in a likely 5 to 7+ year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since late October 2008, NEM since late November 2008's bullish double bottom at 21.17 with late October 2008's cycle low at 21.40. This is the only sector I know of that's clearly in a bull market now, and, a roaring one at that, having more than doubled so far (GDX/HUI/XAU have, gold should eventually), in only a few months time.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
This means that WMT is in Wave 3 up (up down up since 2-2's cycle low at 46.25), or, is early in Wave 4 down, of the oversold bounce/attempted (likely failure) gap filling action (a huge very bearish gap down from 55.54 occurred on 1-8-09, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) since 2-2's cycle low at 46.25.
This also means that SPX (S & P 500) is probably in Wave 5 up of the countertrend Wave B monthly upcycle since mid January (was calling it a short term upcycle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, and, will probably try and fail to fill it's upside gap at 934.70.
Note that, from the mid January cycle high that occurred after WMT bounced following the huge gap down from 55.54, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, WMT did an inverse Elliott Wave 12345 down up down up down downcycle, to the important 46.25 cycle low that occurred last Monday 2-2-09.
Inverse Elliott Wave 12345 patterns are highly useful, as regular readers obviously already know. I use them every day on the intraday charts when day trading.
Some great trading opportunities are approaching. Some great shorting opportunities will arise once SPX (S & P 500) trys and probably fails to fill it's upside gap at 934.70, and, after WMT trys and probably fails to fill it's upside gap at 55.54.
I'll be looking to trade ultra short overnight (holding a position or two overnight) via SDS (UltraShort S & P 500 ETF), TWM (UltraShort Russell 2000 ETF), QID (UltraShort NASDAQ 100 ETF), DUG (UltraShort Oil and Gas ETF), SRS (UltraShort Real Estate ETF), FAZ (3 times Finance Bear, a lot of daredevils are trading the relatively new 3 times ETFs), etc, and, of course, I'll also day trade.
Once GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) complete the Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle that began on 1-26-09 (gold peaked on 1-30-09, GLD on 2-2-09, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld) or soon will (as discussed in a previous post, some upside surprise is possible, but, one still needs to wait for a nasty correction/Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle to occur, from an understanding of cycles one knows that it HAS TO OCCUR), a great long trading opportunity should arise.
Based upon the nature of cycles, since GDX/HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (began mid March 2008) just bottomed in late October 2008 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx), they should decline dramatically in the near future, such that the Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market's rising bottoms uptrend begins relatively flat. Upcycles and downcycles trendlines almost always begin relatively flat, and, tend to become increasingly parabolic/sharply rising over time.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) and gold have been in a likely 5 to 7+ year Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since late October 2008, NEM since late November 2008's bullish double bottom at 21.17 with late October 2008's cycle low at 21.40. This is the only sector I know of that's clearly in a bull market now, and, a roaring one at that, having more than doubled so far (GDX/HUI/XAU have, gold should eventually), in only a few months time.
Nothing discussed on this Blog is a recommendation, or, should be construed as investment advice.
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: DUG, GDX, Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NDX, NEM, RUT, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU, XOI, XOM
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:39 PM
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