Trade the Cycles

Sunday, September 21, 2008

........."A Bailout Plan, but Will It All Work?"

"A Bailout Plan, but Will It All Work?," see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/business/21econ.html. Part of the article is below.

"As the federal government steps to the center of the financial crisis, devising plans to take ownership of hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of bad mortgages, a pair of simple questions rise to the fore: Will this intervention finally be enough to restore order? And what will this grand rescue cost taxpayers?

The Treasury Department, as overseer of the financial system, has in recent weeks unleashed a vast array of initiatives in a bid to stave off catastrophe. It took over the country’s largest mortgage finance companies and put untold billions of taxpayer dollars on the line to prop up other lenders.

Now, although the details are still being worked out, the government is dispensing with rescuing one company at a time, and instead is taking on a vast pile of bad debt in one gulp.

If it all comes to pass — if Uncle Sam becomes the repository for the radioactive leftovers of bad real estate bets — will the crisis lift? Will the fear that has kept banks clinging to their dollars, starving the economy of capital, give way to free-flowing credit?

Most broadly, what are the long-term costs of the government’s stepping in to restore order after so many wealthy financiers became so much wealthier through what now seem like reckless bets on housing — bets now covered with public dollars?

Some question the prudence of adding to the nation’s overall debt at a time when the Treasury relies on the largess of foreigners to cover the bills. Even so, there is wide agreement that a broad intervention like the one Treasury is proposing is necessary.

“It goes a long way; it ameliorates it very substantially,” said Alan S. Blinder, an economist at Princeton and a former vice chairman of the board of governors at the Federal Reserve, who has said for months that the government must step in forcefully to buy mortgage-linked investments.

“We’re deep into Alice in Wonderland’s rabbit hole,” Mr. Blinder said.

But significant skepticism confronts the plan. Under a proposal circulating Saturday, the Treasury could spend as much as $700 billion to buy mortgage-linked investments, then sell what it can as it works out the messy details of the loans. But no one really knows what this cosmically complex web of finance will be worth, making the final price tag for the taxpayer unknowable. One may just as well try to predict the weather three years from Tuesday."

.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/

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