It Looks Like A GDX/HUI/XAU Short Term Wave 1 Cycle High Will Occur On Monday
It looks like a GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 cycle high will occur on Monday, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. Note that GDX has done an up down up down pattern since 9-11-08's likely Wave A major intermediate term cycle low, and, GDX/HUI/XAU and reliable lead indicator NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) have bullish candles today, with a bullish large inverse spike and a bullish white candle that indicates a close above the open.
So, Wave 5 up of the GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 upcycle since 9-11-08 probably began today for GDX/late yesterday for HUI/XAU, and, will probably peak on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. A GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and GLD (Gold ETF) short selling opportunity should arise early next week.
Typically I'll wait for a significant intraday Wave A type plunge, and, I carefully check the Elliott Wave count on the 5 day intraday candlestick charts (GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM and whatever I'm trading), as well as the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, then I'll go short late in an intraday countertrend Wave B rebound or (probably) early in Wave C down. Large spikes tend to occur at or near important cycles highs on both the intraday and daily candlestick charts, so, I look for that also.
Gold/GLD probably peaked yesterday 9-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, note yesterday's huge extremely bearish spike.
After putting in what's probably a countertrend (yes) Wave B short term cycle high yesterday, gold/GLD crashed and did a huge Wave A down type move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. GLD created a "bullish" (probably only from a very short term point of view) large breakaway gap at 82.80 at today 9-19's open. When a very short term countertrend Wave B up peaks on Monday or Tuesday I'll look to double short gold via DZZ.
The sector NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.17% versus the XAU on 9-19, and, was an off the charts bearish -7.96% on 9-18. The broad market Walmart
(WMT) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the sector Lead Indicator, was an off the charts bearish -6.93% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 9-19, and was a very bearish -1.23% on 9-18.
When the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators strongly agree the best trading opportunities tend to occur, so, the short selling opportunity that'll very likely occur early next week should be a great one for gold/GLD (and probably Harmony Gold (HMY)), which jives with GLD's huge extremely bearish spike on yesterday 9-18's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
Since gold/GLD experienced extremely high volatility the prior two days (9-17 and 9-18), which is what occurs at important cycle highs/lows, gold/GLD have a huge extremely bearish spike on their daily candlestick chart on 9-18 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld), and, gold/GLD's cycle low on 9-11-08 lacks the usual bullish large inverse spike that tends to mark important cycle lows, plus the fact that gold/GLD tend to lag gold stocks/GDX/HUI/XAU, means that the short term cycle high that occurred yesterday 9-18 for gold/GLD is probably a countertrend Wave B cycle high of Wave C (since 7-15-08) of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since 3-17-08. GDX/HUI/XAU probably entered a countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle on 9-11-08.
Monday I'll be very carefully looking to day trade short Harmony Gold (HMY, downside gap at 9.17 from 9-18's open got filled today 9-19, in Wave C of a Cyclical Bear Market since mid 2002!, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=HMY&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c) or GDX (Gold Miners ETF), and, I'll be looking to "double short" gold via DZZ (might hold short positions overnight).
See SPX (S & P 500) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/SPX. An SPX Wave A major intermediate term cycle low appears to have occurred yesterday, barring another major debacle in the next few days. SPX needs to hit a major 5% follow through buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred. Note the large bullish inverse spike on yesterday 9-18's candle. SPX created a bullish breakaway gap at 1206.51 at today 9-19's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Gold/GLD probably didn't put in an important cycle low on 9-11-08, and, is probably lagging gold stocks/GDX/HUI/XAU to the downside, which is why Gold/GLD probably peaked yesterday, while GDX/HUI/XAU probably didn't put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high yesterday 9-18.
The huge spiking action this week has "countertrend" written all over it (from an intermediate term cycle point of view for GDX/HUI/XAU, not short term, though probably short term for gold/GLD). Countertrend action tends to be much more vertical/spiking type action than the action that occurs in normal upcycles.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) are very likely in a countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 9-11-08, which is the Wave B upcycle of the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008.
The coal ETF KOL (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?kol) appears to have put in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low on 9-16. It needs to hit a major 5% follow through buy signal however before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, gold/GLD lags and silver lags gold) probably finally put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since mid March, Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) cycle low on 9-11-08.
Before holding positions overnight one obviously should wait for a strong/major 5% follow through buy signal (Wave 1 monthly upcycle, or, maybe a 5% major buy signal will occur after a Wave 3 short term upcycle, or, maybe after a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle), then look to go long after a Wave 2 monthly downcycle or maybe after a short term Wave 4 downcycle (of a monthly upcycle), or, even after short term Wave 2 downcycle, if a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred.
Tuesday 9-9's extremely high GDX/HUI/XAU volatility is what tends to/almost always occurs near important cycle lows and cycle highs, so, 9-9's extremely high volatility indicated that an important cycle low was probably imminent/probably occurred on 9-11, as does the cycle picture and the Elliott Wave count, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 9-12's open (downside gaps at 28.20, 262.97, 115.32, 37.28, GLD at 73.08), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The three month sector NEM Lead Indicator (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) is extremely bullish, which is another sign that GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD and reliable lead indicator NEM were probably very near an important cycle low.
The three month (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is extremely bullish, which is another sign that GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD and reliable lead indicator NEM were probably very near an important cycle low.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has the most bullish/large inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle on 9-11-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM closed at 37.28 on 9-11 (session cycle high at 38), well above the session cycle low and potential Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 35.79.
Upside gaps were created at 9-2's open at 37.64 for GDX, at 45.10 for NEM (filled, 46.12 also got filled, NEM apparently hit 47.75 yesterday 9-18), and, at 81.71 (filled) for GLD, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
There are a lot of gold/silver stocks that have been crushed (as most of you know) and will probably soon (or already have) enter a Cyclical Bull Market. A few examples are AEM (hit a 5% major buy signal, and, appears to have entered a Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Market on 9-11-08), CDE, and NXG. I'll try to remember to point many of them out in the next few days/weeks.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
The US Dollar hit a 5% major buy signal! (major breakout), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/08/us-dollar-hit-5-follow-through-major.html.
Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, and, GLD created one at 86.09 (filled). Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 (filled 9-17) for GLD.
SPX (S & P 500) probably (on 9-18 barring another major debacle) put in a very important Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, that's Wave A down of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. Obviously, a flood of major bad news has been a huge factor recently.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
So, Wave 5 up of the GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 1 upcycle since 9-11-08 probably began today for GDX/late yesterday for HUI/XAU, and, will probably peak on Monday, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12,fs,w14&c. A GDX (Gold Miners ETF) and GLD (Gold ETF) short selling opportunity should arise early next week.
Typically I'll wait for a significant intraday Wave A type plunge, and, I carefully check the Elliott Wave count on the 5 day intraday candlestick charts (GDX/HUI/XAU/NEM and whatever I'm trading), as well as the NEM/WMT Lead Indicators, then I'll go short late in an intraday countertrend Wave B rebound or (probably) early in Wave C down. Large spikes tend to occur at or near important cycles highs on both the intraday and daily candlestick charts, so, I look for that also.
Gold/GLD probably peaked yesterday 9-18, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, note yesterday's huge extremely bearish spike.
After putting in what's probably a countertrend (yes) Wave B short term cycle high yesterday, gold/GLD crashed and did a huge Wave A down type move, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. GLD created a "bullish" (probably only from a very short term point of view) large breakaway gap at 82.80 at today 9-19's open. When a very short term countertrend Wave B up peaks on Monday or Tuesday I'll look to double short gold via DZZ.
The sector NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.17% versus the XAU on 9-19, and, was an off the charts bearish -7.96% on 9-18. The broad market Walmart
(WMT) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the sector Lead Indicator, was an off the charts bearish -6.93% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 9-19, and was a very bearish -1.23% on 9-18.
When the NEM and WMT Lead Indicators strongly agree the best trading opportunities tend to occur, so, the short selling opportunity that'll very likely occur early next week should be a great one for gold/GLD (and probably Harmony Gold (HMY)), which jives with GLD's huge extremely bearish spike on yesterday 9-18's candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld.
Since gold/GLD experienced extremely high volatility the prior two days (9-17 and 9-18), which is what occurs at important cycle highs/lows, gold/GLD have a huge extremely bearish spike on their daily candlestick chart on 9-18 (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld), and, gold/GLD's cycle low on 9-11-08 lacks the usual bullish large inverse spike that tends to mark important cycle lows, plus the fact that gold/GLD tend to lag gold stocks/GDX/HUI/XAU, means that the short term cycle high that occurred yesterday 9-18 for gold/GLD is probably a countertrend Wave B cycle high of Wave C (since 7-15-08) of the Wave A major intermediate term downcycle since 3-17-08. GDX/HUI/XAU probably entered a countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle on 9-11-08.
Monday I'll be very carefully looking to day trade short Harmony Gold (HMY, downside gap at 9.17 from 9-18's open got filled today 9-19, in Wave C of a Cyclical Bear Market since mid 2002!, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=HMY&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c) or GDX (Gold Miners ETF), and, I'll be looking to "double short" gold via DZZ (might hold short positions overnight).
See SPX (S & P 500) at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx)/SPX. An SPX Wave A major intermediate term cycle low appears to have occurred yesterday, barring another major debacle in the next few days. SPX needs to hit a major 5% follow through buy signal before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred. Note the large bullish inverse spike on yesterday 9-18's candle. SPX created a bullish breakaway gap at 1206.51 at today 9-19's open, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
Gold/GLD probably didn't put in an important cycle low on 9-11-08, and, is probably lagging gold stocks/GDX/HUI/XAU to the downside, which is why Gold/GLD probably peaked yesterday, while GDX/HUI/XAU probably didn't put in a short term Wave 1 cycle high yesterday 9-18.
The huge spiking action this week has "countertrend" written all over it (from an intermediate term cycle point of view for GDX/HUI/XAU, not short term, though probably short term for gold/GLD). Countertrend action tends to be much more vertical/spiking type action than the action that occurs in normal upcycles.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx) are very likely in a countertrend Wave B major intermediate term upcycle since 9-11-08, which is the Wave B upcycle of the likely Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since mid March 2008.
The coal ETF KOL (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?kol) appears to have put in a Wave A major intermediate term cycle low on 9-16. It needs to hit a major 5% follow through buy signal however before the Trade the Cycles system indicates that a major cycle low has very likely occurred.
GDX/HUI/XAU (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx, gold/GLD lags and silver lags gold) probably finally put in a Wave A major intermediate term (since mid March, Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market) cycle low on 9-11-08.
Before holding positions overnight one obviously should wait for a strong/major 5% follow through buy signal (Wave 1 monthly upcycle, or, maybe a 5% major buy signal will occur after a Wave 3 short term upcycle, or, maybe after a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle), then look to go long after a Wave 2 monthly downcycle or maybe after a short term Wave 4 downcycle (of a monthly upcycle), or, even after short term Wave 2 downcycle, if a very strong short term Wave 1 upcycle occurred.
Tuesday 9-9's extremely high GDX/HUI/XAU volatility is what tends to/almost always occurs near important cycle lows and cycle highs, so, 9-9's extremely high volatility indicated that an important cycle low was probably imminent/probably occurred on 9-11, as does the cycle picture and the Elliott Wave count, see annotated chart two at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
GDX/HUI/XAU and NEM created large bullish breakaway gaps at 9-12's open (downside gaps at 28.20, 262.97, 115.32, 37.28, GLD at 73.08), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The three month sector NEM Lead Indicator (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem) is extremely bullish, which is another sign that GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD and reliable lead indicator NEM were probably very near an important cycle low.
The three month (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, used in concert with the sector NEM Lead Indicator, is extremely bullish, which is another sign that GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD and reliable lead indicator NEM were probably very near an important cycle low.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has the most bullish/large inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle on 9-11-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM closed at 37.28 on 9-11 (session cycle high at 38), well above the session cycle low and potential Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 35.79.
Upside gaps were created at 9-2's open at 37.64 for GDX, at 45.10 for NEM (filled, 46.12 also got filled, NEM apparently hit 47.75 yesterday 9-18), and, at 81.71 (filled) for GLD, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
There are a lot of gold/silver stocks that have been crushed (as most of you know) and will probably soon (or already have) enter a Cyclical Bull Market. A few examples are AEM (hit a 5% major buy signal, and, appears to have entered a Wave 5 Cyclical Bull Market on 9-11-08), CDE, and NXG. I'll try to remember to point many of them out in the next few days/weeks.
The US Dollar entered a Wave 3 Minor Intermediate Term Upcycle on 7-15-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd, and, entered a Cyclical Bull Market within a Secular Bear Market on 3-17-08, after putting in a cycle low at 70.698. Note the very large bullish inverse spike on 3-17-08's and 7-15-08's candle.
The US Dollar hit a 5% major buy signal! (major breakout), see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/08/us-dollar-hit-5-follow-through-major.html.
Reliable lead indicator NEM created a bearish breakaway gap at 44.71 on 8-8 (filled), GDX created one at 38.92, HUI created one at 356.72, and, GLD created one at 86.09 (filled). Upside gaps were created on 7-23 at 47 for GDX, 432.50 for HUI, 185.04 for the XAU, and, at 93.06 (filled 9-17) for GLD.
SPX (S & P 500) probably (on 9-18 barring another major debacle) put in a very important Wave A major intermediate term (since 10-11-07) cycle low, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, that's Wave A down of the Cyclical Bear Market since 10-11-07. Obviously, a flood of major bad news has been a huge factor recently.
A Cyclical Bear Market probably/very likely began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:34 PM
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