Trade the Cycles

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

SPX (S & P 500) Wave 2 Minor Intermediate Term Downcycle Probably Remains In Effect

An SPX (S & P 500) Wave 2 minor intermediate term downcycle (since 5-19-08) probably remains in effect (6-12 probably wasn't the cycle low), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, because, the short term Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator has turned very bearish (-0.77% versus SPX today/on 6-18, -0.37% on 6-17, +0.21% on 6-16, -1.39% on 6-13), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC.

Also, note that WMT has a very large bearish spike on today 6-18's daily candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt, and, has a very large bearish spike on today 6-18's intraday candle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=wmt&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.

Walmart (WMT) filled downside gaps at 58.37 and 57.68 today. Watch downside gaps at 57.20, 56.40, 55.75 tomorrow.

I'll be looking to ultra short SPX/NDX/RUT via SDS/QID/TWM tomorrow, or, I might short WMT. I also might short NEM or GDX or GLD. I traded SDS today, with an entry point at 61.19 and an exit point at 61.4001.

GDX/HUI/XAU/GLD/NEM's action since Monday 6-16's large gap up continued to be bearish/sideways today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. It looks like they'll try to fill Monday's downside gap in the next day or two. The NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bullish +0.15% versus the XAU today/on 6-18.

That's all for today. See yesterday's post with much more info at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/06/todays-spx-s-p-500-weakness-was.html.

.......http://www.JoeFROCKS.com/ .

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