SPX (S & P 500), HUI, XAU, And Gold Appear To Have Completed Countertrend Wave B Type Upcycles Today
SPX (S & P 500), HUI, XAU, and gold appear to have completed very short term countertrend Wave B type upcycles today, testing recent important cycle highs:
At 1538.74 on 9-19-07 versus 1533.74 today (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, countertrend Wave B upcycle began on 8-16-07. A likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at 1555.90 in July 2007, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
At 402.27 on 9-21-07 versus 399.01 today (HUI, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, likely bearish countertrend Wave B double top cycle high at 402.27 on 9-21-07 of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, 401.69 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 5-11-06).
At 173.17 on 9-21-07 versus 171.32 today (XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, likely bearish countertrend Wave B double top cycle high on 9-21-07 at 173.17 of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, 171.71 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 5-11-06).
At $747.10 (gold, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold) on 9-21-07 versus $745ish today.
Looking at the 5 day intraday Yahoo charts SPX (S & P 500), HUI, XAU, GLD (gold ETF) all appear to have put in very short term countertrend Wave B type cycle highs today (link below should have all four charts), and, appear to have clearly entered a very short term Wave C downcycle today, showing significant weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx%2C+%5Ehui%2C+%5Exau%2C+gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for all four 5 day intraday Yahoo charts.
So, very important peaking action has occurred recently. SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1555.90 in July 2007, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NDX (NASDAQ 100) may have put in a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high today, see new chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html and see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
HUI and the XAU probably put in bearish countertrend Wave B double top cycle highs on 9-21-07 at 402.27/173.17 (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) versus Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs on 5-11-06 at 401.69/171.71. This jives with the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator and the extremely bearish COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (see next two paragraphs). A major gold massacre is probably brewing.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.41% versus the XAU today/on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% versus the XAU on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -15.11% versus the XAU the past 22 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The latest gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data (5 day period ending 9-25) is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a large 27,946 short gold futures and options contracts (over 17,000 the prior week and a massive 53,207 the week before that), while liquidating 2977 long gold futures and options contracts.
See Tuesday's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/bearish-huge-transitory-huixau-spike.html for additional important precious metals sector analysis.
What follows is previously posted analysis/info, except for today's WMT Lead Indicator data.
The Wave A downcycle for SPX (S & P 500) was the decline from the July cycle high/likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1555.90 (cycle began in October 2002), see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The countertrend Wave B upcycle for SPX (S & P 500) was the upcycle from 8-16-07 that probably peaked on 9-19-07 at 1538.74 (note the bearish large spike on 9-19's candle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Massive Fed credit recently has been a big factor propping the market up/holding it together, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. The Fed wants their half point (0.50%) Fed Funds rate cut on 9-18 to look like a success. SPX only rallied 3-4 hours after the rate cut, largely because it's Cyclical Bull Market probably peaked in July at 1555.90, AND, it was near the end of a countertrend Wave B upcycle, that had been in effect for slightly over a month (began 8-16-07) when the rate cut occurred on 9-18-07.
On Monday I'll be looking to day trade UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID), see chart 1 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid.
The WMT Lead Indicator is bearish recently, at +0.39% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 9-28, at +0.33% on 9-27, at -0.22% on 9-26, at -1.81% on 9-25, at -0.06% on 9-24, at -0.65% on 9-21, at -0.29% on 9-20, +0.09% on 9-19, -0.33% on 9-18, at +0.51% on 9-17, at +0.58% on 9-14, at -0.02% on 9-13, at -0.55% on 9-12, at +0.23% on 9-11, at -0.15% on 9-10, at +0.82% on 9-7, at +0.30% on 9-6, at -0.81% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.40% on 8-31, -1.55% on 8-30, -0.37% on 8-29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which jives with SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) soon entering Wave C of the major downcycle since the July cycle high (probably did on 9-19).
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle (probably did on 9-19), that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Note that in the likely Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
At 1538.74 on 9-19-07 versus 1533.74 today (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx, countertrend Wave B upcycle began on 8-16-07. A likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high occurred at 1555.90 in July 2007, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html).
At 402.27 on 9-21-07 versus 399.01 today (HUI, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, likely bearish countertrend Wave B double top cycle high at 402.27 on 9-21-07 of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, 401.69 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 5-11-06).
At 173.17 on 9-21-07 versus 171.32 today (XAU, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24xau, likely bearish countertrend Wave B double top cycle high on 9-21-07 at 173.17 of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, 171.71 Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 5-11-06).
At $747.10 (gold, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold) on 9-21-07 versus $745ish today.
Looking at the 5 day intraday Yahoo charts SPX (S & P 500), HUI, XAU, GLD (gold ETF) all appear to have put in very short term countertrend Wave B type cycle highs today (link below should have all four charts), and, appear to have clearly entered a very short term Wave C downcycle today, showing significant weakness, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx%2C+%5Ehui%2C+%5Exau%2C+gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for all four 5 day intraday Yahoo charts.
So, very important peaking action has occurred recently. SPX (S & P 500) put in a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1555.90 in July 2007, see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NDX (NASDAQ 100) may have put in a Cyclical Bull Market cycle high today, see new chart 1 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html and see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24ndx.
HUI and the XAU probably put in bearish countertrend Wave B double top cycle highs on 9-21-07 at 402.27/173.17 (of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui) versus Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle highs on 5-11-06 at 401.69/171.71. This jives with the extremely bearish NEM Lead Indicator and the extremely bearish COT (Commitments Of Traders) data (see next two paragraphs). A major gold massacre is probably brewing.
The NEM Lead Indicator is BIG TIME SCARY. The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.41% versus the XAU today/on 9-28, -2.21% on 9-27, -4.13% on 9-26, +0.40% on 9-25, +2.03% on 9-24, +0.07% versus the XAU on 9-21, -1.46% on 9-20, +0.69% on 9-19, -2.33% on 9-18, -0.53% on 9-17, +0.12% on 9-14, -1.34% on 9-13,+0.02% on 9-12, +0.25% on 9-11, -0.69% on 9-10, +0.42% on 9-7, -1.39% on 9-6, +0.06% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.98% on 8-31, -0.03% on 8-30, -1.86% on 8-29 = an extremely bearish -15.11% versus the XAU the past 22 sessions, see six month NEM Lead Indicator at http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem.
The latest gold COT (Commitments Of Traders) Data (5 day period ending 9-25) is very bearish, see the last/third data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm. The savvy non contrarian gold Commercial Traders continue to go massively short, adding a large 27,946 short gold futures and options contracts (over 17,000 the prior week and a massive 53,207 the week before that), while liquidating 2977 long gold futures and options contracts.
See Tuesday's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/bearish-huge-transitory-huixau-spike.html for additional important precious metals sector analysis.
What follows is previously posted analysis/info, except for today's WMT Lead Indicator data.
The Wave A downcycle for SPX (S & P 500) was the decline from the July cycle high/likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at 1555.90 (cycle began in October 2002), see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
The countertrend Wave B upcycle for SPX (S & P 500) was the upcycle from 8-16-07 that probably peaked on 9-19-07 at 1538.74 (note the bearish large spike on 9-19's candle), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Massive Fed credit recently has been a big factor propping the market up/holding it together, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. The Fed wants their half point (0.50%) Fed Funds rate cut on 9-18 to look like a success. SPX only rallied 3-4 hours after the rate cut, largely because it's Cyclical Bull Market probably peaked in July at 1555.90, AND, it was near the end of a countertrend Wave B upcycle, that had been in effect for slightly over a month (began 8-16-07) when the rate cut occurred on 9-18-07.
On Monday I'll be looking to day trade UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID), see chart 1 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?qid.
The WMT Lead Indicator is bearish recently, at +0.39% versus SPX (S & P 500) today/on 9-28, at +0.33% on 9-27, at -0.22% on 9-26, at -1.81% on 9-25, at -0.06% on 9-24, at -0.65% on 9-21, at -0.29% on 9-20, +0.09% on 9-19, -0.33% on 9-18, at +0.51% on 9-17, at +0.58% on 9-14, at -0.02% on 9-13, at -0.55% on 9-12, at +0.23% on 9-11, at -0.15% on 9-10, at +0.82% on 9-7, at +0.30% on 9-6, at -0.81% on 9-5, -1.81% on 9-4, -0.40% on 8-31, -1.55% on 8-30, -0.37% on 8-29, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, which jives with SPX (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) soon entering Wave C of the major downcycle since the July cycle high (probably did on 9-19).
A great sanity check of the Elliott Wave count is the reliable WMT Lead Indicator, which nearly/seemingly always turns bearish ahead of downcycles and bullish ahead of upcycles. For example, the extremely bearish six month WMT Lead Indicator (see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=6m&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC) jives with SPX soon entering a big Wave C downcycle (probably did on 9-19), that should bottom well below the Wave A cycle lows that occurred on 8-16-07 for SPX, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx.
Note that in the likely Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx) that the Wave B up of that downcycle lasted a grand total of only TWO DAYS, which is a clear indication that the downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to Thursday 8-16's cycle low is probably only a Wave A downcycle.
The dramatic Wave A downcycle from the July cycle high at 1555.90 to 8-16's cycle low at 1370.60 triggered a major 5% follow through sell signal, which indicates that an SPX (S & P 500) Cyclical Bear Market probably began in July after peaking at 1555.90, to see the major sell signal see chart 2 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
2:08 PM
