Gold Rose A Paltry +2.29% From 5-11-06's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market Cycle High At $730.40 To 9-21-07's Cycle High At $747.10
Despite an anemic US Dollar, gold rose a paltry +2.29% from 5-11-06's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $730.40 to 9-21-07's cycle high at $747.10, see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24gold. +2.29% in over 16 months and some of the garbage spewing gold pimps are talking about how well gold has done.
HUI rose only +0.14% in that time (401.69 on 5-11-06 to 402.27 on 9-21-07) and the XAU rose only +0.85% (171.71 on 5-11-06 to 173.17 on 9-21-07), putting in bearish Wave B double top cycle highs on 9-21-07.
It looks like Friday 9-21's early cycle highs at 402.27 for HUI (see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui to see double top at 401.69 on 5-11-06/402.27 on 9-21-07) and at 173.17 for the XAU (versus 171.71 on 5-11-06) are countertrend Wave B bearish double top cycle highs for the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. The huge spike move from 8-16-07 until 9-21-07 is typical of what happens near very important cycle highs.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/bearish-huge-transitory-huixau-spike.html for an important precious metals sector update.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
HUI rose only +0.14% in that time (401.69 on 5-11-06 to 402.27 on 9-21-07) and the XAU rose only +0.85% (171.71 on 5-11-06 to 173.17 on 9-21-07), putting in bearish Wave B double top cycle highs on 9-21-07.
It looks like Friday 9-21's early cycle highs at 402.27 for HUI (see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui to see double top at 401.69 on 5-11-06/402.27 on 9-21-07) and at 173.17 for the XAU (versus 171.71 on 5-11-06) are countertrend Wave B bearish double top cycle highs for the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. The huge spike move from 8-16-07 until 9-21-07 is typical of what happens near very important cycle highs.
See today's first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/09/bearish-huge-transitory-huixau-spike.html for an important precious metals sector update.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade volatile stocks/ETFs obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
3:20 PM
