............A Gold Bloodbath May Be Imminent
Gold stocks have crashed recently, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24hui, so, gold should soon crash, since the stocks lead the metals (HUI/NEM/XAU began a Secular Bull Market in late 2000 versus April 2001 for gold and late 2001 for silver),
see gold charts at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold.
HUI's Wave B up of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 peaked at 372.20 in July, so, HUI is in Wave C of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, with Wave A of Wave C probably bottoming at 284.85 on Thursday. The final Wave C cycle low of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should bottom at 220ish, which is where it's multi year trendline since late 2000 is, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Gold's Wave A down of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006. Note that the Wave B uptrend that was in effect since the June 2006 has clearly broken down, and, gold clearly has a well established downtrend going back well over a year, to when the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $730.40 occurred on 5-11-06. This is a chart that's so obviously bearish (see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold), yet, I haven't seen a single bearish gold writer recently.
Gold's Wave B up of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 peaked at $698.00 in April, so, gold's now in the final Wave C downcycle, and, gold's primary multi year trendline since April 2001 is at $475ish now. In chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold one can see that a few years ago gold's primary multi year trendline was in the low $400s, because that's where gold was before it nearly doubled from 2004 until May 2006. Gold's multi year trendline didn't magically spike to $600+. Multi year/very long term/Secular Bull Market (about 8-20+ years) trendlines are relatively flat.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
see gold charts at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold.
HUI's Wave B up of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 peaked at 372.20 in July, so, HUI is in Wave C of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06, with Wave A of Wave C probably bottoming at 284.85 on Thursday. The final Wave C cycle low of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market should bottom at 220ish, which is where it's multi year trendline since late 2000 is, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
Gold's Wave A down of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 bottomed at $542.27 in June 2006. Note that the Wave B uptrend that was in effect since the June 2006 has clearly broken down, and, gold clearly has a well established downtrend going back well over a year, to when the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $730.40 occurred on 5-11-06. This is a chart that's so obviously bearish (see chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold), yet, I haven't seen a single bearish gold writer recently.
Gold's Wave B up of it's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 peaked at $698.00 in April, so, gold's now in the final Wave C downcycle, and, gold's primary multi year trendline since April 2001 is at $475ish now. In chart 2 at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold one can see that a few years ago gold's primary multi year trendline was in the low $400s, because that's where gold was before it nearly doubled from 2004 until May 2006. Gold's multi year trendline didn't magically spike to $600+. Multi year/very long term/Secular Bull Market (about 8-20+ years) trendlines are relatively flat.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:48 PM
