SPX And Reliable SPX/Market Lead Indicator WMT Appear To Have Hit An Important And Much Needed Intermediate Term Cycle Low Today
SPX and reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT appear to have hit an important and much needed intermediate term cycle low today, with WMT possibly doing so just after the open, probably leading to the upside, and, with SPX possibly bottoming at mid session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=. Note the bullish very large inverse spike on today's SPX candle, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
After SPX and reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hit an intermediate term cycle low (probably did today, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) they need to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal.
After bottoming at mid session SPX did an intraday Wave 1 up followed by a Wave 2 down, and, was in Wave 3 up at session's end, that may have been peaking, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, after possibly some brief strength at the open, SPX is likely to do an intraday Wave 4 down followed by an intraday Wave 5 up, and, then an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intraday correction is likely to occur.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was very bullish during much of today's session, it was greater than +1.00% versus SPX much of the time, which correctly portended late session strength, but, it turned very bearish late in the session (gap narrowed dramatically), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, closed at a modestly bullish +0.18% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, which jives with SPX doing an intraday Wave 4 downcycle early tomorrow.
I'm going to look to day trade SSO (Ultra Long SPX ETF) or maybe UWM (Ultra Long Russell 2000 ETF) early tomorrow, after likely early weakness/an intraday Wave 4 downcycle .
Fed credit for the five day period ending 8-15-07 rose a dramatic +$17.223 Billion (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/), and, Fed credit was a massive $17 Billion today (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), on punch spiking Thursday, so, strong index related computer program buying is likely the next few days.
The fact that mortgage lender Countrywide, CFC, rallied dramatically off of it's session cycle low at 15.00 today to close at 18.95 is a sign that bankruptcy fears may be overblown, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cfc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
SPX's Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 appears to/may have peaked at 1555.90, which is the latest intermediate term cycle high, since the potential intermediate term cycle low that may have occurred today isn't too far above the previous one that occurred last March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish in recent sessions, at
+3.47% versus the XAU today/on 8-16, at +3.29% on 8-15, and, at +1.77% on 8-14.
In this treacherous market day trading a modest position or sitting on the sidelines makes a lot of sense, so, I won't be discussing trading stocks today.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets/volatile stocks obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
After SPX and reliable SPX/market lead indicator WMT hit an intermediate term cycle low (probably did today, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt) they need to do a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle in order to hit an intermediate term cycle buy signal.
After bottoming at mid session SPX did an intraday Wave 1 up followed by a Wave 2 down, and, was in Wave 3 up at session's end, that may have been peaking, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Espx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=, so, after possibly some brief strength at the open, SPX is likely to do an intraday Wave 4 down followed by an intraday Wave 5 up, and, then an Elliott Wave ABC down up down intraday correction is likely to occur.
The reliable WMT Lead Indicator was very bullish during much of today's session, it was greater than +1.00% versus SPX much of the time, which correctly portended late session strength, but, it turned very bearish late in the session (gap narrowed dramatically), see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=1d&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=,p12,fs,w14&c=wmt,%5EGSPC, and, closed at a modestly bullish +0.18% versus SPX (S & P 500) today, which jives with SPX doing an intraday Wave 4 downcycle early tomorrow.
I'm going to look to day trade SSO (Ultra Long SPX ETF) or maybe UWM (Ultra Long Russell 2000 ETF) early tomorrow, after likely early weakness/an intraday Wave 4 downcycle .
Fed credit for the five day period ending 8-15-07 rose a dramatic +$17.223 Billion (http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/), and, Fed credit was a massive $17 Billion today (http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE), on punch spiking Thursday, so, strong index related computer program buying is likely the next few days.
The fact that mortgage lender Countrywide, CFC, rallied dramatically off of it's session cycle low at 15.00 today to close at 18.95 is a sign that bankruptcy fears may be overblown, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=cfc&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=.
SPX's Cyclical Bull Market since October 2002 appears to/may have peaked at 1555.90, which is the latest intermediate term cycle high, since the potential intermediate term cycle low that may have occurred today isn't too far above the previous one that occurred last March, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Espx.
The NEM Lead Indicator has turned extremely bullish in recent sessions, at
+3.47% versus the XAU today/on 8-16, at +3.29% on 8-15, and, at +1.77% on 8-14.
In this treacherous market day trading a modest position or sitting on the sidelines makes a lot of sense, so, I won't be discussing trading stocks today.
In this market especially, even if you're a daredevil, it makes a lot of sense to wait for a strong short term Wave 1 upcycle to trigger a monthly or intermediate term cycle buy signal, then look to buy late in a short term Wave 2 downcycle or early in Wave 3 up. Using cycle trendlines also makes a lot of sense. Usually at least one important trendline (important short term at least) will be broken before one should look to buy.
Often a bullish large inverse spike will occur when a cycle low occurs, which is a sign to look to go long. Conversely, often a bearish large spike will occur when a cycle high occurs, which is a sign to look to exit a long position.
Cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles." "Gaps action" is very important.
If one decides to trade rockets/volatile stocks obviously paper trade for a while or trade very modest positions at first.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $475ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $475-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. The primary Secular Bull Market trendlines since late 2000 are at 200-220 for HUI and at 85-90 for the XAU. Those are the targets for where the Cyclical Bear Market will bottom. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began on 1-31-06. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:14 PM
