...................Gold Elliott Wave And Cycles
In the following gold charts at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold, one can see that, even though the charts are logarithmic (one should always use linear charts, which reflect reality, I've had difficulty finding good linear long term gold charts), gold has a near term downtrend (see chart one) and a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend going back to May 2006's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high at $730+ (see chart two).
Short term gold is doing (see chart one), after recently completing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern/downcycle (occurred over more than a month's time), an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern/short term upcycle, with Wave 4 down probably in effect now (probably began Friday) along with HUI/NEM/XAU (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/xau-filled-its-upside-gap-at-13441.html).
Long term one can see in the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold that gold did a Wave A down to $542.27 in June 2006, then did a Wave B up to $676.41 in July 2006, followed by a Wave A of Wave C cycle low at $563.50 and a Wave B of Wave C cycle high at $655.50, so, gold is in Wave C of Wave C along with HUI/XAU, in which a cycle low well below Wave A's $542.27 should occur, at $470-500 based upon a chart I did.
In the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold, which is logarithmic, gold's huge spike move from Summer 2005 until mid May 2006 would be even more obvious in a linear chart that very important peaking action was occurring, yet many/most of the gold writers (maybe one or two deserve to be called market timers, MAYBE) remain bullish in the face of a near term and a long term (since May 2006) downtrend, AND, the fact that gold obviously spiked way above it's primary very long term Secular Bull Market uptrend line (currently at $470ish), in effect since April 2001, and, remains way above it's primary trendline.
What many of the gold/silver writers really care about is their newsletter, their web site, their company, etc. They're salesmen or saleswomen in many cases. Some are calling them gold pimps, which in some cases appears to be on the mark.
NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.
HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 7, 8, and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Short term gold is doing (see chart one), after recently completing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern/downcycle (occurred over more than a month's time), an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern/short term upcycle, with Wave 4 down probably in effect now (probably began Friday) along with HUI/NEM/XAU (see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/xau-filled-its-upside-gap-at-13441.html).
Long term one can see in the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold that gold did a Wave A down to $542.27 in June 2006, then did a Wave B up to $676.41 in July 2006, followed by a Wave A of Wave C cycle low at $563.50 and a Wave B of Wave C cycle high at $655.50, so, gold is in Wave C of Wave C along with HUI/XAU, in which a cycle low well below Wave A's $542.27 should occur, at $470-500 based upon a chart I did.
In the second chart at http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold, which is logarithmic, gold's huge spike move from Summer 2005 until mid May 2006 would be even more obvious in a linear chart that very important peaking action was occurring, yet many/most of the gold writers (maybe one or two deserve to be called market timers, MAYBE) remain bullish in the face of a near term and a long term (since May 2006) downtrend, AND, the fact that gold obviously spiked way above it's primary very long term Secular Bull Market uptrend line (currently at $470ish), in effect since April 2001, and, remains way above it's primary trendline.
What many of the gold/silver writers really care about is their newsletter, their web site, their company, etc. They're salesmen or saleswomen in many cases. Some are calling them gold pimps, which in some cases appears to be on the mark.
NEM has a bearish double top at 47.80 on 12-8 and 47.77 on 12-15, with 47.80 on 12-8 being a minor intermediate term cycle high for the cycle that began on 10-4-06. For anyone to suggest that you shouldn't seriously consider taking profits now means they don't understand what's going on.
HUI could fall all the way to 200ish in the next few weeks (it's Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html), with much of that decline probably due to program selling related to SPX (S & P 500) weakness, notice how HUI has been following SPX the past 5 sessions, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=l&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
Many gold/silver stocks are likely to decline 30-40-50%+ FROM HERE in the next few weeks. You need to determine where the Secular Bull Market PRIMARY trendline is for your gold/silver stocks, see charts 7, 8, and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for examples. I haven't seen a single gold/silver writer who understands that a Cyclical Bear Market is in effect right now.
HUI/XAU are in Wave C of Wave C of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06. In the next 3-6 weeks HUI/XAU should do exactly what reliable lead indicator NEM has already done, which is to decline to their primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines, currently at 200-220ish (could turn up which is why there's a wide range) for HUI and at 85-90ish for the XAU, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM did a Wave A down, a Wave B up, then it's Wave C did an ABC down up down pattern, which is exactly what HUI/XAU appear to be doing, with Wave C of Wave C probably having begun Tuesday 12-5, when minor intermediate term cycle highs occurred, see charts two and three at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
12:36 PM
