Update To Very Long Term Gold And Silver Charts/Elliott Wave Post
In my post earlier today (see part in quotes) I didn't realize that the Privateer chart (at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html) was semi-logarithmic, therefore the $480-520 target range derived from eyeballing that chart was a bit optimistic.
I drew gold's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline since April 2001 on a 3.5 year large StockCharts chart, and, it reveals that a reasonable target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since May 2006) cycle low is $470-500. Gold's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline since April 2001 is currently at $470ish, hence that's the bottom of the target range. Gold will probably bottom below $500.
Silver's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since May 2006) cycle low target range is probably more like $8.00-8.50 than the $8.50-9.00 I mentioned earlier today, because the Privateer chart (at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html) is semi-logarithmic.
Since those charts are semi-logarithmic, the huge spikes that occurred from 2005 until May 2006 would be much larger in a linear chart (one should always use linear charts), which shows just how clueless the vast majority of gold writers are. It doesn't take much brainpower (just a quick glance at the charts should do it) to realize that the huge (Wave 5) spike (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaking) that occurred from 2005 until May 2006 was very important peaking action for gold and silver.
It's also obvious in those charts that the manipulation theory gold/silver writers are full of crap. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull and silver did even better at 35-40%/year on average. The US stock market is dominated by computerized index fund program trading, which accounts for 45% of the trading volume on the NYSE and probably about 70%+ of the dollar volume. Gold and silver are securitized in ETFs now (GLD, IAU, SLV), and, therefore are heavily influenced short term by the Tsunami that is index fund program trading, with SPX (S & P 500) being the lead index.
"The very long term gold and silver charts at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html show just how clueless the vast majority of gold writers are. It doesn't take much brainpower (just a quick glance at the charts should do it) to realize that the huge (Wave 5) spike (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaking) that occurred from 2005 until May 2006 was very important peaking action for gold and silver.
To create the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines for gold/silver connect the cycle lows from 2001 until just before the huge spike from 2005 until May 2006. Doing so one arrives at (target ranges below were derived from eyeballing the charts) Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low target ranges of $480-520 for gold and $8.50-9.00 for silver, with their current spot prices at $613.00 and $12.45.
In the very long term gold and silver charts at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html one can see that gold and silver's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 has done a Wave A down and a Wave B up, and, is currently in Wave C down along with HUI/XAU."
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
I drew gold's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline since April 2001 on a 3.5 year large StockCharts chart, and, it reveals that a reasonable target range for gold's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since May 2006) cycle low is $470-500. Gold's Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline since April 2001 is currently at $470ish, hence that's the bottom of the target range. Gold will probably bottom below $500.
Silver's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market (since May 2006) cycle low target range is probably more like $8.00-8.50 than the $8.50-9.00 I mentioned earlier today, because the Privateer chart (at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html) is semi-logarithmic.
Since those charts are semi-logarithmic, the huge spikes that occurred from 2005 until May 2006 would be much larger in a linear chart (one should always use linear charts), which shows just how clueless the vast majority of gold writers are. It doesn't take much brainpower (just a quick glance at the charts should do it) to realize that the huge (Wave 5) spike (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaking) that occurred from 2005 until May 2006 was very important peaking action for gold and silver.
It's also obvious in those charts that the manipulation theory gold/silver writers are full of crap. Gold did 30-35%/year on average in it's Wave 1 Cyclical Bull and silver did even better at 35-40%/year on average. The US stock market is dominated by computerized index fund program trading, which accounts for 45% of the trading volume on the NYSE and probably about 70%+ of the dollar volume. Gold and silver are securitized in ETFs now (GLD, IAU, SLV), and, therefore are heavily influenced short term by the Tsunami that is index fund program trading, with SPX (S & P 500) being the lead index.
"The very long term gold and silver charts at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html show just how clueless the vast majority of gold writers are. It doesn't take much brainpower (just a quick glance at the charts should do it) to realize that the huge (Wave 5) spike (Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market peaking) that occurred from 2005 until May 2006 was very important peaking action for gold and silver.
To create the Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendlines for gold/silver connect the cycle lows from 2001 until just before the huge spike from 2005 until May 2006. Doing so one arrives at (target ranges below were derived from eyeballing the charts) Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market cycle low target ranges of $480-520 for gold and $8.50-9.00 for silver, with their current spot prices at $613.00 and $12.45.
In the very long term gold and silver charts at http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-sil.html one can see that gold and silver's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since May 2006 has done a Wave A down and a Wave B up, and, is currently in Wave C down along with HUI/XAU."
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 6 and 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:09 PM
