The NEM Lead Indicator = +1.00% Vs The XAU Today

So, there may be a sharp rise in HUI/XAU at some point tomorrow. The short term upcycle that began late on Tuesday is probably Wave B up of the monthly downcycle that began on 7-12 and today (maybe early tomorrow also) was probably a very scary retest of Tuesday's HUI/NEM/XAU short term cycle lows. The Fed's punch spiking the past week+ portends strength in many indexes because it fuels index fund trading, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE. Also, today's very high HUI/NEM/XAU volatility is a very sharp volatility spike that portends substantial strength, assuming that a short term upcycle is in effect. Cycles are the primary market timing consideration.

Right now it looks like Wave B up (of a likely ABC pattern) of the Cyclical Bear Market's (HUI/XAU since 5-11-06) Wave A down probably didn't peak on 7-12 and that the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 probably will get filled. This jives with the Cyclical Bear Market's downtrend line beginning relatively flat, so it makes sense based on the nature of cycles. Wave B will probably be comprised of two monthly cycles rather than just the one monthly upcycle that peaked Wednesday 7-12. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/