HUI/XAU Monthly Upcycle Appears To Have Peaked Yesterday
Which means that the next few weeks should be Wave C down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's (HUI/XAU since 5-11-06) Wave A down, so, I expect lower cycle lows in the near future than those that occurred on 6-13. Timewise if HUI and the XAU are in an 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Market it makes sense that Wave A hasn't bottomed yet.
The USD recently put in a major cycle low above the prior one, which means it's in a Cyclical Bull Market, that points to a Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU as does the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, with NEM hitting a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-31-06 versus 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU, and, the most recent long term upcycle was the third/Wave 5 long term upcycle of the Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000, so, it's likely that HUI/XAU began a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 5-11-06.
Timewise a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is due because very long term secular Bull (or Bear) Markets last 15-20 years (the previous Bear Market for gold lasted 21 years), so, the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 was due to peak because it lasted about five and a half years for HUI/XAU and over five years for NEM. There should be two more Cyclical Bull Markets corresponding to Waves 3 and 5 and there should be two 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Markets corresponding to Waves 2 and 4 with Wave 2 probably in effect now.
The reason why most Elliot Wavers usually fail is because they don't understand cycle trendlines, therefore don't know when to begin the count, so they obviously can't consistently arrive at the correct count.
Today's early SPX weakness was a major factor behind HUI, NEM, and the XAU's early weakness. Index fund trading is a huge factor that most are unaware of. Notice how closely HUI tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
The monthly upcycle that began on 6-13 and probably ended yesterday was probably Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's (HUI/XAU since 5-11-06) Wave A down. NEM filled an upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 yesterday.
Tuesday 6-13 was the bottom for (probably) Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down, that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Ehui. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The USD recently put in a major cycle low above the prior one, which means it's in a Cyclical Bull Market, that points to a Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU as does the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator, with NEM hitting a likely Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 1-31-06 versus 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU, and, the most recent long term upcycle was the third/Wave 5 long term upcycle of the Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000, so, it's likely that HUI/XAU began a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 5-11-06.
Timewise a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market is due because very long term secular Bull (or Bear) Markets last 15-20 years (the previous Bear Market for gold lasted 21 years), so, the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market since late 2000 was due to peak because it lasted about five and a half years for HUI/XAU and over five years for NEM. There should be two more Cyclical Bull Markets corresponding to Waves 3 and 5 and there should be two 18 monthish Cyclical Bear Markets corresponding to Waves 2 and 4 with Wave 2 probably in effect now.
The reason why most Elliot Wavers usually fail is because they don't understand cycle trendlines, therefore don't know when to begin the count, so they obviously can't consistently arrive at the correct count.
Today's early SPX weakness was a major factor behind HUI, NEM, and the XAU's early weakness. Index fund trading is a huge factor that most are unaware of. Notice how closely HUI tracked SPX (S & P 500) recently: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&s=%5EHUI&l=off&z=m&q=c&a=m26-12-9&a=p12&a=fs&a=w14&c=&c=%5EGSPC.
The monthly upcycle that began on 6-13 and probably ended yesterday was probably Wave B up of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's (HUI/XAU since 5-11-06) Wave A down. NEM filled an upside gap at 56.31 from 5-15 yesterday.
Tuesday 6-13 was the bottom for (probably) Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market's Wave A down, that is also probably the start of an 18-24 month Cyclical Bear Market, so it wasn't really a correction because it's probably the start of an 18-24 month downtrend/Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market for HUI/XAU. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Ehui. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:21 AM
