Trade the Cycles

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

The Monthly Downcycle's Wave A Down May Have Bottomed Today

The monthly downcycle's (began Wednesday 7-12) Wave A down may have bottomed today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Ehui, so, a rebound is likely the next few days corresponding to the monthly downcycle's Wave B up. The NEM Lead Indicator was +0.51% vs the XAU today and the Fed has been spiking the index fund trader punch since last Thursday, see http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE.

Right now it looks like Wave B up (of a likely ABC pattern) of the Cyclical Bear Market's (HUI/XAU since 5-11-06) Wave A down probably didn't peak on 7-12 and that the XAU's upside gap at 159.41 from 5-15 probably will get filled. Wave B will probably be comprised of two monthly cycles rather than just the one monthly upcycle that peaked last Wednesday 7-12. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/