Why 9-30-05 Was The Major Upcyle's Wave 1 Cycle High
See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html and in NEM's latest 1 year chart dated 1-20-06 (about 12 charts down) note the nice Elliot Wave 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 minor int term upcycle from 5-16-05 until 9-30-05. That's why I say 9-30-05 was the major upcycle's Elliot Wave 1 cycle high. Ciao.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
11:57 AM
2 Comments:
Joe,
It's as good an argument as any I've heard - and interpretation is the difficulty of EW - on XAU, I can see a potential additional a, b, and c down and 1-5 up inside that, especially on a line chart, but I suspect you are right.
Ironically, if this is an EW 4 down and stocks drop 25% (ouch! let hedging commence), it's not all that different from a major A down anyway, and when we see the next peak, whether it is a 5 up peak or a B up peak, we will know which it is with a pretty high degree of certainty by where that peak ends up.
I'm thinking that since we are in the faster rising part of the major cycle, assuming this is a 4 down, maybe the line should be more parabolic by then, and the drop a little less, but maybe that's wishful thinking.
By
Jeff, at 6:51 PM
Jeff, that's a good point you made about the A down, even if 1-17 was the major int term and long term cycle high, would probably be about the same as Wave 4 down in length and severity. It looks like we're in for a nasty correction and bullishness has become rampant though it's far from bubble/mania levels.
By
Joe Ferrazzano, at 10:31 PM
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