Trade the Cycles

Saturday, January 21, 2006

.........................New Cycle Definitions!

Hooya! Per Elliot Wave there are three minor intermediate term upcycles in each major intermediate term upcycle, see http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for HUI and NEM's latest 1 year charts that show the Elliot Wave Points and see the XAU 3 year chart dated 5-16-05. There are Elliot Wave 1, 3, and 5 minor intermediate term upcycles and there are two minor intermediate term downcycles, the Elliot Wave 2 and 4 minor intermediate term downcycles.

Each minor intermediate term upcycle may be comprised of more than one monthly cycle if a 2% sell signal occurs followed by a 2% buy signal for a new monthly cycle buy signal. The monthly cycle has been resurrected! The monster upcycle that began on 12-20-05 was a monthly NOT a minor intermediate term upcycle. The Elliot Wave 3 minor intermediate term upcycles began on 10-20-05 for HUI/XAU and on 11-4-05 for NEM, and, ended last Tuesday 1-17. 2% sell signals occurred on Wednesday 1-18. Active traders should always act on 2% sell signals, because there's judgment involved in calling the three Elliot Wave minor intermediate term cycle highs that occur in a major intermediate term upcycle. Investors will of course wait for a 5% major cycle sell signal (5% follow through after the major upcycle's channel breaks down) in the major upcycle's third Elliot Wave 5 minor intermediate term upcycle (Wave 4 down began last Tuesday). Ciao!

3 Comments:

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 6:50 AM  

  • Hi Joe,

    I think you mentioned this before, but besides the lengthening of cycle times, could you remind me why the summer 2005 HUI drop is not an EW2 down, which would place us in a 5 up rolling over now?

    I had it counted as a bottom both times it hit near the trendline. And it did reach near a POG fib line that could correspond with an EW down.

    http://www.joefrocks.com/hui1year12006.png

    I had that drop labeled as the EW 2 down for a while, and the fall 2005 drop (which you labeled EW 2 down) as the EW 4 down. In support of your view, it would be a pretty short (in %age terms) EW 2 down.

    Obviously, this difference in interpretation makes a huge difference in the outlook for the next several months, so I'd like to convince myself one way or the other.

    Thanks again.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 6:53 AM  

  • Jeff,

    HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05)Wave 4 down since last Tuesday 1-17-06. Wave 1 ended on 9-30-05. See the latest HUI/NEM charts. We can discuss this more later. Ciao

    By Blogger Joe Ferrazzano, at 11:02 AM  

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