Trade the Cycles

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Federal Reserve Bank Credit Grew By Only +$562 MIllion The Week Ending 1-18-06

Repurchase agreements (Repos) fell by -$822 Million the week ending 1-18-06. See http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ This is a neutral indication, and, it appears that today's massive +$21 Billion in Repos was largely factored into the market today. NEM underperformed the XAU by a very bearish -2.09% today which portends substantial weakness tomorrow.

That weakness has in fact already begun, because the XAU trended down during the last 2+ hours of the session. The XAU should fill it's downside gap at 137.64 (that was created at today's open) in the next day or two.

The assessment remains unchanged that HUI, NEM, and the XAU began Elliot Wave 4 down of their major upcycle (since 5-16-05) early on Tuesday. Yesterday a 2% minor int term cycle sell signal occurred. Elliot Wave 4 down of the major upcycle should do a down, up, down Elliot Wave A, B, C minor int term downcycle comprised of 2 short term downcycles and 1 short term upcycle. This is still the minor int term downcycle's Wave A short term downcycle. Ciao

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