Reliable Lead Indicator NEM Has Trended Down Since 1-17-06
NEM appears to have put in it's Wave 3 minor int term cycle high on 1-17 vs possibly today for HUI/XAU, leading to the downside. HUI/XAU were able to take out their 1-17 cycle highs with the help of a massive $50.50 Billion in Fed Credit (in the form of Repos) the past week, which fueled index fund traders. See
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
Once again today NEM failed to fill it's upside gap a bit below 59, which is a bearish indication.
NEM and the XAU look like they may fill today's downside gaps tomorrow. NEM outperformed the XAU by a slight +0.05% today which doesn't point to much strength tomorrow. Looking at the 5 day chart below you'll see that the session cycle high occurred just after the open, so today's tone really was weakness after the very early gap up at the open/spike move:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=
A very sharp decline in gold/silver stocks should soon begin (may have today) that probably is the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 down. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for HUI and NEM's latest 1 year charts that show the Elliot Wave Points.
NEM has downside gaps to fill at 56.97 from 1-25, at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 141.29 from 1-25, at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm?SHOWMORE=TRUE
Once again today NEM failed to fill it's upside gap a bit below 59, which is a bearish indication.
NEM and the XAU look like they may fill today's downside gaps tomorrow. NEM outperformed the XAU by a slight +0.05% today which doesn't point to much strength tomorrow. Looking at the 5 day chart below you'll see that the session cycle high occurred just after the open, so today's tone really was weakness after the very early gap up at the open/spike move:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=
A very sharp decline in gold/silver stocks should soon begin (may have today) that probably is the major upcycle's (since 5-16-05) Elliot Wave 4 down. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for HUI and NEM's latest 1 year charts that show the Elliot Wave Points.
NEM has downside gaps to fill at 56.97 from 1-25, at 53.40 from 1-3, at 51.59 from 12-28, at 50.45 from 12-22, and at 48.75 from 12-7, and, the XAU has downside gaps at 141.29 from 1-25, at 137.64 from 1-19, at 135.39 from 1-6, at 128.03 from 1-3, at 124.36 from 12-28, and at 122.49 from 12-22.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:07 PM
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