...........An S & P 500 (SPX)/Major Averages Crash Is In Effect
The S & P 500 (SPX, http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24spx) fell -8.75% today 9-29-08 (a bit more after hours, after I wrote this), and, closed right at the session cycle low 1107.06 after hours (4:15 pm), which means that more downside early tomorrow is very likely. The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) fell -10.52% today 9-29-08.
This is a meltdown/crash folks, because, the bailout wasn't properly explained to people, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/09/some-bailout-math-for-ya-baby.html. A crash would have probably occurred anyway due to the substantial economic slowdown that's in effect. The positive is that the crash is happening sooner rather than later.
The S & P 500 (SPX) Volatility Index VIX rose a humongous +34.66% today 9-29, which is obviously a gigantic rise in fear that points to more probably severe weakness tomorrow 9-30-08.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a large bearish spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle today 9-29, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +5.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today.
As a trader it obviously makes sense to sit on the sidelines until the dust settles, because, rapid wild swings are occurring, and, the market is obviously very newsdriven.
In the gold sector it's become clear that 9-22-08 was a short term Wave 1 (began 9-11-08) cycle high for GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. So, a big move up is likely for GDX/HUI/XAU once they bottom in the next day or two, but, it'll probably (barring a sector crash) be a short term Wave 3 upcycle, not Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1 upcycle that was discussed last week. Also, gold is in a big short term Wave 3 upcycle, so, I'll be looking to trade gold double long via DGP, once the market calms down some.
From 9-11-08's likely (in a normal market, the sector might crash with the market though) Wave A major intermediate term cycle low to 9-22-08's short term Wave 1 cycle high GDX/HUI/XAU did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, and, since then have done/are doing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in the short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 2 downcycle since 9-22-08 probably didn't bottom yet. Today 9-29's sector NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.18% versus the XAU, which points to more downside, as does the extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +5.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 9-29.
Reliable lead indicator NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) might have bottomed today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since it put in a large bullish inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle late today on it's intraday chart, and, is trying to complete an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the intraday chart.
This obviously isn't a normal market, so, sitting on the sidelines until the dust settles makes a lot of sense for the vast majority of traders/investors. NEM has a larger bullish inverse spike on today 9-29's candle versus a bearish large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
The Gold ETF GLD took out it's 9-18-08 cycle high today (cycle high at 92 today 9-29), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, though it doesn't show up on it's intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. GLD is in a big short term Wave 3 upcycle.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has the most bullish/large inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle on 9-11-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM closed at 37.28 on 9-11 (session cycle high at 38), well above the session cycle low and potential Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 35.79.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
This is a meltdown/crash folks, because, the bailout wasn't properly explained to people, see http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2008/09/some-bailout-math-for-ya-baby.html. A crash would have probably occurred anyway due to the substantial economic slowdown that's in effect. The positive is that the crash is happening sooner rather than later.
The S & P 500 (SPX) Volatility Index VIX rose a humongous +34.66% today 9-29, which is obviously a gigantic rise in fear that points to more probably severe weakness tomorrow 9-30-08.
Reliable broad market lead indicator Walmart (WMT) has a large bearish spike on a bearish black (close below the open) candle today 9-29, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?wmt. The Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator was an extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) +5.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today.
As a trader it obviously makes sense to sit on the sidelines until the dust settles, because, rapid wild swings are occurring, and, the market is obviously very newsdriven.
In the gold sector it's become clear that 9-22-08 was a short term Wave 1 (began 9-11-08) cycle high for GDX/HUI/XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gdx. So, a big move up is likely for GDX/HUI/XAU once they bottom in the next day or two, but, it'll probably (barring a sector crash) be a short term Wave 3 upcycle, not Wave 5 of a big short term Wave 1 upcycle that was discussed last week. Also, gold is in a big short term Wave 3 upcycle, so, I'll be looking to trade gold double long via DGP, once the market calms down some.
From 9-11-08's likely (in a normal market, the sector might crash with the market though) Wave A major intermediate term cycle low to 9-22-08's short term Wave 1 cycle high GDX/HUI/XAU did an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern, and, since then have done/are doing an Elliott Wave ABC down up down pattern in the short term Wave 2 downcycle, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gdx&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c.
The GDX/HUI/XAU short term Wave 2 downcycle since 9-22-08 probably didn't bottom yet. Today 9-29's sector NEM Lead Indicator was a slightly bearish -0.18% versus the XAU, which points to more downside, as does the extremely bullish (which is very short term bearish) broad market Walmart (WMT) Lead Indicator, at +5.03% versus the S & P 500 (SPX) today/on 9-29.
Reliable lead indicator NEM (http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem) might have bottomed today, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=nem&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c, since it put in a large bullish inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle late today on it's intraday chart, and, is trying to complete an Elliott Wave 12345 up down up down up pattern on the intraday chart.
This obviously isn't a normal market, so, sitting on the sidelines until the dust settles makes a lot of sense for the vast majority of traders/investors. NEM has a larger bullish inverse spike on today 9-29's candle versus a bearish large spike, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem.
The Gold ETF GLD took out it's 9-18-08 cycle high today (cycle high at 92 today 9-29), see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?gld, though it doesn't show up on it's intraday chart, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=gld&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=p12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c. GLD is in a big short term Wave 3 upcycle.
Reliable lead indicator NEM has the most bullish/large inverse spike on a bullish white (close above the open) candle on 9-11-08, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?nem. NEM closed at 37.28 on 9-11 (session cycle high at 38), well above the session cycle low and potential Cyclical Bear Market (since 1-31-06) cycle low at 35.79.
HUI/XAU put in an intermediate term and very likely a Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market cycle high on 3-17 for HUI and on 3-14 for the XAU, see http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%5Ehui. The XAU has a large bearish spike on 3-14's candle.
A Cyclical Bear Market began on 10-11-07 for SPX (S & P 500), began in late October 2007 for NDX (NASDAQ 100), and, began in late July 2007 for RUT (Russell 2000).
.......http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
NEM XAU HUI
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
1:10 PM
1 Comments:
The Euro has completed its countertrend wave B (Look at a 4 hr chart at Netdania)and is mapping out its last wave down of wave C. If this is indeed true it should bottom below 1.3906. (Euro also has no spike down yet)Interesting to see how this ties in with your GLD picture.
By
Sean, at 7:47 AM
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