...........A Likely HUI/XAU Wave B Scenario
The beauty of "Trade the Cycles" is that it tells us what's likely to happen in Wave B, and, when to exit long positions/look to go short, which is shortly after the last of the upside gaps gets filled. That's why I don't use Fibonacci (or other) price targets.
In the countertrend Wave B since 3-14 NEM will probably fill upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and possibly also at 47.06, and, the XAU will probably fill upside gaps at 136.66 and 139.66, but not the one at 147.75. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU's five day chart.
So, watch NEM's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10 (possibly also at 47.06), and, watch the XAU's upside gaps at 136.66 and 139.66. A likely scenario is that HUI/XAU's Wave B since 3-14 will probably peak shortly after the last of those upside gaps gets filled.
NEM's minor intermediate term downcycle and HUI/XAU's Wave A bottomed shortly after the last of the downside gaps (NEM's at 40.83) got filled (about an hour or less later HUI/XAU bottomed), which is why cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
I exited my GDX short position (at 36.70)/long XAU put position within about an hour of the HUI/XAU Wave A cycle low on Wednesday. If you're looking to short and/or go long some puts, wait for HUI/XAU's spike move/Wave B since 3-14 to clearly break down/do a Wave A type decline (probably shortly after the XAU's upside gap at 139.66 gets filled or whichever one is the last to get filled), then get your shorts on in a countertrend Wave B.
See today's important first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/nem-experienced-likely-bullish.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
In the countertrend Wave B since 3-14 NEM will probably fill upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10, and possibly also at 47.06, and, the XAU will probably fill upside gaps at 136.66 and 139.66, but not the one at 147.75. See http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Exau&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c= for the XAU's five day chart.
So, watch NEM's upside gaps at 44.53, 45.10 (possibly also at 47.06), and, watch the XAU's upside gaps at 136.66 and 139.66. A likely scenario is that HUI/XAU's Wave B since 3-14 will probably peak shortly after the last of those upside gaps gets filled.
NEM's minor intermediate term downcycle and HUI/XAU's Wave A bottomed shortly after the last of the downside gaps (NEM's at 40.83) got filled (about an hour or less later HUI/XAU bottomed), which is why cycle trendlines/channels used in concert with Elliott Wave patterns and gaps are the basis/crux of "Trade the Cycles."
I exited my GDX short position (at 36.70)/long XAU put position within about an hour of the HUI/XAU Wave A cycle low on Wednesday. If you're looking to short and/or go long some puts, wait for HUI/XAU's spike move/Wave B since 3-14 to clearly break down/do a Wave A type decline (probably shortly after the XAU's upside gap at 139.66 gets filled or whichever one is the last to get filled), then get your shorts on in a countertrend Wave B.
See today's important first post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/03/nem-experienced-likely-bullish.html.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5-6 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:17 AM
