...................Why I'm A Gold/Silver Bug
If you missed this post (maybe even if you didn't), you should see it to see why I'm a gold/silver bug and for great info http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/rare-gold-article-worth-reading.html.
Given the very high volatility of the precious metals sector, it doesn't take much brainpower to realize that market timing is very important and that being "goofy bullish" is very reckless/irresponsible. NEM (a blue chip) is well below where it was at it's December 2003 Wave 3 long term cycle high a bit above 50. If one had listened to the small army of goofy gold writers in December 2003 one might be down 15% or so more than three years later.
Most of the gold/silver writers (vast majority) are clueless fools when it comes to market timing, who don't even know where gold's primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendline (since April 2001) is ($470ish), or HUI's since November 2000 (200-220, 220ish if it turns up, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) or the XAU's since October 2000 (85-90, see chart 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). You can tell that very few of the gold/silver writers are competent/experienced traders, because competent traders have a healthy respect/fear for what the market can do to them if they get complacent/goofy bullish.
It obviously doesn't look like NEM will fill it's upside gap at 44, but, I'm waiting for a rebound to make sure that it doesn't, and, to confirm, by clearly falling short of 44, that it won't fill it. One of the great traits required of a good trader is PATIENCE, which usually comes with a lot of experience.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/very-short-term-elliott-wave-count-was.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Given the very high volatility of the precious metals sector, it doesn't take much brainpower to realize that market timing is very important and that being "goofy bullish" is very reckless/irresponsible. NEM (a blue chip) is well below where it was at it's December 2003 Wave 3 long term cycle high a bit above 50. If one had listened to the small army of goofy gold writers in December 2003 one might be down 15% or so more than three years later.
Most of the gold/silver writers (vast majority) are clueless fools when it comes to market timing, who don't even know where gold's primary multi year Secular Bull Market trendline (since April 2001) is ($470ish), or HUI's since November 2000 (200-220, 220ish if it turns up, see chart 7 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html) or the XAU's since October 2000 (85-90, see chart 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html). You can tell that very few of the gold/silver writers are competent/experienced traders, because competent traders have a healthy respect/fear for what the market can do to them if they get complacent/goofy bullish.
It obviously doesn't look like NEM will fill it's upside gap at 44, but, I'm waiting for a rebound to make sure that it doesn't, and, to confirm, by clearly falling short of 44, that it won't fill it. One of the great traits required of a good trader is PATIENCE, which usually comes with a lot of experience.
See the previous post at http://tradethecycles.blogspot.com/2007/01/very-short-term-elliott-wave-count-was.html.
As a long term multi-year investor in any stock, commodity, etc. you want to buy near the primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline, for example NEM's is at 40ish right now, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. Therefore, NEM right now would be a great buy in the 40-42 range. Gold's primary multi-year Secular Bull Market/very long term upcycle trendline is at $470ish right now, so, gold would be a great buy in the $470-500 range. When the vast majority of gold writers say it's a great time to buy or are bullish, as they almost always are, it's rarely a good time for long term investors to buy. The vast majority of gold writers couldn't time their way out of a paper bag. They tend to be terrible.
HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market began 5-11-06, see charts 7 and 9 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. NEM's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market that began on 1-31-06 ended on 10-4-06 at 39.84, so, reliable lead indicator NEM is probably in a 5 yearish Wave 3 Cyclical Bull Market since 10-4-06, see chart 8 at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ .
HUI NEM XAU
Labels: Gold, Gold Stocks, HUI, NEM, Silver, Silver Stocks, SPX, XAU
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
10:27 AM
