Trade the Cycles

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

.............The Indicators Portend Weakness Today

By weakness I mean the trend for that session not a simplistic up or down session. Today, the indicators point to a downtrend, and, after a very brief spike at the open, HUI/NEM/XAU may trend down the remainder of the session, see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EHUI&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=.

The NEM Lead Indicator was a bearish -0.60% versus the XAU on Friday and was a very bearish -1.90% versus the XAU on Thursday. The XAU Put/Call Ratio fell to 1.10288 today from 1.10674 on Friday which portends weakness today. XAU Implied Volatility fell -1.02% to 33.480 on Friday 9-1 from 33.825 on 8-31 versus a +0.52% rise in the XAU on 9-1, which is a significant (0.50-1.99%) +0.50% rise in complacency (-1.02% decline in XAU Implied Volatility + +0.52% rise in the XAU on 9-1 = -0.50% decline in the XAU wall of worry = +0.50% rise in complacency) that portends some weakness today. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/