Trade the Cycles

Monday, September 04, 2006

Gold/Silver Negative Correlation With The US Dollar

For the past 180 trading days gold (GCZ) has a -83% correlation coefficient with the US Dollar (DXU) and silver's (SIZ) is -70%, see http://www.mrci.com/special/correl.htm. The correlation coefficient must be squared in order to arrive at the actual correlation, so, gold's correlation with the US Dollar is -68.89% the past 180 trading days and silver's is -49.00%.

From February 2005, when gold hit a major cycle low, until November 2005, when the US Dollar hit a major cycle high, gold and the US Dollar had a significant positive correlation. The fact that the US Dollar recently put in a higher major cycle low than it's previous one, which means that a Cyclical Bull Market is in effect, is a strong indication that gold/gold stocks are now in a Cyclical Bear Market, given that gold and the US Dollar have reverted to the usual negative correlation. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/