................The Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market
Has probably been in effect since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM and since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU. See my charts at http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html, with chart 1 showing the Elliot Wave count in February, which correctly indicated that the Wave 5 long term upcycle (began 5-10-04, ended 5-11-06) and therefore also the Wave 1 Cyclical Bull Market (began late 2000) was peaking.
The second chart shows that the USD is now in a Cyclical Bull Market, which is a strong indication that gold/silver stocks are now in a Cyclical Bear Market. It's true that the USD and gold can have a positive correlation for a considerable length of time. This occurred from February 2005, when gold hit a major cycle low, to November 2005, when the USD hit a major cycle high. They both trended up for about nine months, so, they enjoyed a positive correlation.
The third chart shows that the NEM Lead Indicator correctly pointed to a major downturn, that is probably an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The second chart shows that the USD is now in a Cyclical Bull Market, which is a strong indication that gold/silver stocks are now in a Cyclical Bear Market. It's true that the USD and gold can have a positive correlation for a considerable length of time. This occurred from February 2005, when gold hit a major cycle low, to November 2005, when the USD hit a major cycle high. They both trended up for about nine months, so, they enjoyed a positive correlation.
The third chart shows that the NEM Lead Indicator correctly pointed to a major downturn, that is probably an 18 monthish Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
9:12 AM
