...........Indicators Mixed But Mostly Bearish Today
The most important thing to understand now is that after last Wednesday 8-23's important double tops for HUI/XAU Wave A down of the Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market since 5-11-06 for HUI/XAU (since 1-31-06 for reliable lead indicator NEM) is likely to bottom in the next few weeks in the 100-110 range for the XAU. So, trading long is risky now because the picture is very bearish cyclewise, with Wave C of Wave A down having begun after last Wednesday 8-23's important double tops for HUI/XAU. The XAU put in a perfect double top at 150.70 on 8-23-06 and 7-12-06.
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.15% vs the XAU yesterday, which indicates that day trading long today would probably be very risky. XAU Implied Volatility rose slightly to 34.09 yesterday from 33.99 on Monday, and, the XAU Put/Call Ratio fell sharply to 1.10338 today from 1.13979 yesterday.
XAU Implied Volatility rose slightly despite the XAU rising +0.33% yesterday, which was a modest (0.25-0.49%) rise in fear that portends some strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio portends weakness today because of the sharp rise in complacency (it fell sharply). With the XAU Put/Call Ratio I don't do a comparison with the change in the XAU, because I get it before the market opens, so, if it falls that's a rise in complacency that portends weakness, unless it falls more than 6%, that would be an unusually large rise in complacency that portends strength. Cycles are the first and most important consideration. The more bearish the picture is cyclewise then the more weakness is indicated if an indicator portends weakness, and, vice versa if the picture is bullish and an indicator portends strength. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
The NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.15% vs the XAU yesterday, which indicates that day trading long today would probably be very risky. XAU Implied Volatility rose slightly to 34.09 yesterday from 33.99 on Monday, and, the XAU Put/Call Ratio fell sharply to 1.10338 today from 1.13979 yesterday.
XAU Implied Volatility rose slightly despite the XAU rising +0.33% yesterday, which was a modest (0.25-0.49%) rise in fear that portends some strength today. The XAU Put/Call Ratio portends weakness today because of the sharp rise in complacency (it fell sharply). With the XAU Put/Call Ratio I don't do a comparison with the change in the XAU, because I get it before the market opens, so, if it falls that's a rise in complacency that portends weakness, unless it falls more than 6%, that would be an unusually large rise in complacency that portends strength. Cycles are the first and most important consideration. The more bearish the picture is cyclewise then the more weakness is indicated if an indicator portends weakness, and, vice versa if the picture is bullish and an indicator portends strength. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:57 AM
