........Early Weakness Followed By A Sharp Rally

Most of today's strength came during a very brief 15-20 minute large spike move, which is a sign that today was probably the last gasp of the short term upcycle since late last Thursday. Whether Wave 3 of the monthly upcycle began last Thursday or this is Wave 1 rolling over one wants to wait for a sharp pullback.

There was a very sharp decline last Thursday which I probably should have realized (easy in hindsight) was a short term cycle low, but, the NEM Lead Indicator was a very bearish -1.78% vs the XAU last Thursday and the short term downcycle only lasted 5 hours, which was a brief short term downcycle. Friday's large gap up was a sign that a short term cycle low had occurred late on Thursday. At best I would have only traded a modest long position given the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator.

The NEM Lead Indicator = -0.41% vs the XAU today. The expected sharp decline is likely tomorrow. For recent action see http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9%2Cp12%2Cfs%2Cw14&c=&s=%5Ehui. The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. An entry point for monthly cycle traders should occur in the next few sessions when Wave 2 bottoms or Wave 3 corrects (Wave 3 tends to have a few short term cycles). ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/