.........The Latest COT Data Is Bullish/Mixed

The Gold Speculators traded net short, which is bullish, as is the unusually large degree (> 10% decrease in their short position) of short covering. However, the Gold Commercial Traders COT data is slightly bearish/basically neutral with very modest long liquidation and a tiny increase in their short position. The good news is they stopped aggressively short selling in the 5 session period ending 7-25. See COT data at http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm.

The Monthly Upcycle began early on Monday 7-24 and a 2% buy signal occurred on Tuesday 7-25. An entry point for monthly cycle traders should occur in the next few sessions (possibly on Monday if a very sharp decline occurs) when Wave 2 bottoms. The cycles of individual gold/silver stocks will tend to differ somewhat from those of HUI/XAU.

Keep in mind that Reliable Lead Indicator NEM began a Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market on 1-31-06 and HUI/XAU did so on 5-11-06. NEM has a six month downtrend line while HUI/XAU's Wave 2 Cyclical Bear Market downtrend line (first relatively flat segment) will be established when the minor intermediate term upcycle (comprised of two monthly cycles, the first monthly upcycle peaked 7-12) that began on 6-13 peaks. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/