Trade the Cycles

Tuesday, May 02, 2006

The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.46% Vs The XAU Today

The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.20% vs the XAU on Monday. The NEM Lead Indicator = -1.10% vs the XAU on Friday. So, a sharp decline in HUI/NEM/XAU is likely tomorrow. The NEM Lead Indicator has been very bearish the past 3 sessions which points to a very sharp decline during the next few days.

The monthly cycle probably peaked yesterday for HUI/NEM/XAU shortly after the XAU filled the last of the recently created upside gaps at 159.93 from 4-20. Often cycle highs/lows occur shortly (in this case about 20 minutes) after the last of recently created gaps get filled. So, HUI/NEM/XAU are probably in a Wave A short term downcycle that has begun very flat, but, there was a sharp intraday decline followed by a sharp rebound today. After plunging today HUI/NEM/XAU rebounded to their monthly downcycle trendlines.

Fed Credit fell -$3.555 Billion in the WE 4-26 which portends a sharp decline this week: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ See 5 day chart for recent action: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= . ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/