..........The Monthly Cycle Probably Peaked Yesterday
In rollover mode for HUI/NEM/XAU, which made modestly higher cycle highs than those on 4-19, and, the XAU probably put in a monthly cycle high about 20 minutes after filling it's upside gap at 159.93 from 4-20. See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.46790 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 38.400 on Monday, which is a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 158.90 from 5-2, at 158.11 from 5-1, at 152.05 from 4-28, at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.72 from 4-28, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some and maybe all of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.15% vs the XAU right now, was a very bearish -1.20% vs the XAU on 5-1, was a very bearish -1.10% vs the XAU on 4-28, was a very bullish +1.16% vs the XAU on 4-27, was a bullish +0.41% vs the XAU on 4-26, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday 4-17.
The latest COT data (as of 4-25-06) is short term bullish since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, both of which portend strength this week, but much of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days old when released and gold spiked sharply higher late last week. The gold Commercial Traders added 5828 long futures and options contracts and covered 1404 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but much of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days old when released. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 5354 long futures and options contracts and covered 1435 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator), but much of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days old when released.
There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for a few weeks: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, and, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. 10-20%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next few weeks are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.46790 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 38.400 on Monday, which is a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 158.90 from 5-2, at 158.11 from 5-1, at 152.05 from 4-28, at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.72 from 4-28, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some and maybe all of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bearish -0.15% vs the XAU right now, was a very bearish -1.20% vs the XAU on 5-1, was a very bearish -1.10% vs the XAU on 4-28, was a very bullish +1.16% vs the XAU on 4-27, was a bullish +0.41% vs the XAU on 4-26, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday 4-17.
The latest COT data (as of 4-25-06) is short term bullish since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, both of which portend strength this week, but much of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days old when released and gold spiked sharply higher late last week. The gold Commercial Traders added 5828 long futures and options contracts and covered 1404 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but much of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days old when released. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 5354 long futures and options contracts and covered 1435 short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator), but much of the strength may have occurred last week because the data is three days old when released.
There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for a few weeks: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, and, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem. 10-20%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next few weeks are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:19 AM
