........................Early Gap Filling Action
The XAU filled it's downside gap at 154.98 from 4-26 and NEM/XAU then filled their upside gaps created at today's open. You can thank PatJ for comments being turned off today. She posted the same stupid inaccurate comment ten times or more and continued to after I answered it. Very few people %wise should be trading short term cycles anyway.
See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI.
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.58579 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 37.830 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.90 from 4-26, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gap at 159.93 for the XAU is a breakaway gap that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle. NEM filled 58.43 from 4-20 today, so it wasn't a breakaway gap.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.20% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.41% vs the XAU on 4-26, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday 4-17.
The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).
There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI.
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.58579 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 37.830 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.90 from 4-26, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gap at 159.93 for the XAU is a breakaway gap that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle. NEM filled 58.43 from 4-20 today, so it wasn't a breakaway gap.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a slightly bullish +0.20% vs the XAU right now, was a bullish +0.41% vs the XAU on 4-26, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday 4-17.
The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).
There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
7:18 AM
