..............Another Probably Brief Sucker's Spike
See: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=&a=m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c= A monthly cycle high occurred on Wednesday 4-19 near the close for HUI/NEM/HUI. The rally since last Thursday's 5-7% mini crash is trying to suck in the dumb money and is probably doing a good job of it.
HUI/NEM/XAU are probably going to have a typical nasty multi week 10-15%+ spring correction based on the strong NEM sell interest in recent weeks and the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator (read on), which began after 4-19's monthly cycle high.
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.56455 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 38.305 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 154.98 from 4-26, at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.90 from 4-26, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.75% vs the XAU right now, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday.
The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).
There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
HUI/NEM/XAU are probably going to have a typical nasty multi week 10-15%+ spring correction based on the strong NEM sell interest in recent weeks and the very bearish NEM Lead Indicator (read on), which began after 4-19's monthly cycle high.
A great sign for the health of the major upcycle since 5-16-05 is that fear has spiked dramatically, which is an unusually large rise in fear that portends short term weakness for the next week or two, but is a major positive for the major upcycle. The XAU Put/Call Ratio (May expiration) is at an extremely high fear level = 1.56455 today and XAU Implied Volatility closed at 38.305 yesterday, which is a very high level of fear.
The XAU has downside gaps at 154.98 from 4-26, at 150.16 from 4-21, at 151.71 from 4-18, at 145.47 from 4-17, at 141.35 from 4-12, at 138.84 from 3-30, at 134.17 from 3-29, at Monday 3-27's open at 133.40 and one at 3-24's open at 130.03, and, NEM has downside gaps at 56.90 from 4-26, at 55.42 from 4-21, at 52.87 from 4-17, at 51.46 from 4-12, at 49.46 from 3-27, and at 49.24 from 3-24, some of which will get filled in this monthly downcycle. Thursday 4-20's upside gaps at 58.43 and 159.93 for NEM and the XAU are breakaway gaps that won't get filled until the next monthly upcycle.
The NEM Lead Indicator is a bullish +0.75% vs the XAU right now, was a bearish -0.32% vs the XAU on 4-25, was a bearish -0.59% vs the XAU on 4-24, was a bullish +0.40% vs the XAU on 4-21, was a bullish +0.96% vs the XAU on 4-20, was a bearish -0.70% vs the XAU on 4-19, was a bearish -0.48% vs the XAU on 4-18, after being a very bullish +1.76% vs the XAU on Monday.
The COT data portends weakness this week since the gold Commercial Traders traded net short and the gold Speculators traded net long, both of which portend weakness this week. The gold Commercial Traders sold 174 long futures and options contracts and added 4251 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (non contrarian indicator). The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) added 3284 long futures and options contracts and covered 669 short futures and options contracts which portends weakness this week (contrarian indicator).
There has been a lot of NEM sell interest at Thomson Lycos I Watch for well over a week: http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?t=NEM&range=7&mgp=0&i=3&hdate=&x=11&y=11, the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator is extremely bearish: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EXAU&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5Ehui,nem, and Williams %R for HUI/NEM/XAU was at an overbought extreme near 0 on Wednesday 4-19. 10-15%+ declines in HUI/NEM/XAU (from their monthly cycle highs) over the next week or two are likely. As the major upcycle nears an end (July maybe) it makes sense for the 3 month NEM Lead Indicator to turn extremely bearish. ....... http://www.JoeFRocks.com/
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
8:38 AM
