SPX (S & P 500) Was Briefly Negative And SPX Component NEM Was Also
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,m26-12-9,p12,m26-12-9,p12,fs,m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=NEM,%5EXAU,%5EHUI SPX drives index funds which have a profound affect on the short term/weekly and monthly movements of many sectors, including gold/silver stocks. The largest traders of NEM and other gold/silver stocks found in the various indexes are index fund traders, AND, they tend to trade at THE SAME TIME which is huge. The cycles are vastly different for gold/silver stocks and SPX since gold/silver stocks are in a very long term upcycle since Oct/Nov 2000 and SPX is in a very long term downcycle since March 2000.
XAU Implied Volatility and the XAU Put/Call Ratio point to weakness and there are downside gaps to fill. The NEM Lead Indicator is modestly bullish right now at about +0.20%, so NEM, HUI, and the XAU may fall today after early strength.
Right now HUI, NEM, and the XAU are very overbought if you look at Williams %R near 0, RSI, and stochastics. This New Year's spike move is dumb money/mindless index fund buying which also led to short covering. The best time to buy is after a 10-15% plunge and a minor int term cycle low has occurred near or at an oversold condition, not at very overbought levels.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,m26-12-9,p12,m26-12-9,p12,fs,m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=NEM,%5EXAU,%5EHUI Rapid very modest % moves in SPX cause rapid significant moves in NEM and other gold/silver stocks in the many indices affected by SPX. Because SPX is probably about to enter the parabolic part of it's monthly downcycle after being very flat, actually rising during much of the gold/silver stock strength in the short term and the minor int term upcycles, SPX should soon bring an end to the minor int term upcycle since 10-20 for HUI/XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator is modestly bullish right now at about +0.20% after being bullish yesterday at +0.72% and bullish on Friday at +0.64% vs the XAU. Keep in mind that indicators portend more strength in upcycles versus downcycles.
XAU Implied Volatility rose +6.90% to 32.445 on Tuesday 1-3 from 30.350 on 12-30 versus a +6.30% rise in the XAU on 1-3, which is an unusually large (> 6%) 13.20% rise in fear (+6.90% + +6.30% = +13.20%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +13.20%, therefore fear rose by +13.20%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 1-4's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose an unusually large (> 6%) +6.88% today to 1.09471 from 1.02423 on 1-3 which portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear .
The latest COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is modestly bullish (as of 12-27-05) short term since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, which jives with gold being in Elliot Wave B up of an Elliot Wave A, B, C minor intermediate term downcycle (see 1 year chart), but the significant long liquidation by the Commercial Traders points to some short term weakness. The gold Commercial Traders sold 1381 (sold 8157 the prior week, added 11,405 the prior week, sold 14,042 the prior week, added 17,312 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 2036 (added 4202, 2623 the prior two weeks, covered 5276 the prior week, added 16,229 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but the significant long liquidation points to some weakness. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 3988 (sold 5112, 19,247 the prior two weeks, added 9102 the prior week, sold 2697 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 1535 (covered 7432, 8720 the prior two weeks, added 566, 2309 the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below). Ciao
XAU Implied Volatility and the XAU Put/Call Ratio point to weakness and there are downside gaps to fill. The NEM Lead Indicator is modestly bullish right now at about +0.20%, so NEM, HUI, and the XAU may fall today after early strength.
Right now HUI, NEM, and the XAU are very overbought if you look at Williams %R near 0, RSI, and stochastics. This New Year's spike move is dumb money/mindless index fund buying which also led to short covering. The best time to buy is after a 10-15% plunge and a minor int term cycle low has occurred near or at an oversold condition, not at very overbought levels.
See http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html for the weekly update. Scroll down a few pages past the major averages work to see the gold/silver stock work. See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=b&p=&a=m26-12-9,m26-12-9,p12,m26-12-9,p12,fs,m26-12-9,p12,fs,w14&c=NEM,%5EXAU,%5EHUI Rapid very modest % moves in SPX cause rapid significant moves in NEM and other gold/silver stocks in the many indices affected by SPX. Because SPX is probably about to enter the parabolic part of it's monthly downcycle after being very flat, actually rising during much of the gold/silver stock strength in the short term and the minor int term upcycles, SPX should soon bring an end to the minor int term upcycle since 10-20 for HUI/XAU.
The NEM Lead Indicator is modestly bullish right now at about +0.20% after being bullish yesterday at +0.72% and bullish on Friday at +0.64% vs the XAU. Keep in mind that indicators portend more strength in upcycles versus downcycles.
XAU Implied Volatility rose +6.90% to 32.445 on Tuesday 1-3 from 30.350 on 12-30 versus a +6.30% rise in the XAU on 1-3, which is an unusually large (> 6%) 13.20% rise in fear (+6.90% + +6.30% = +13.20%. The XAU wall of worry grew by +13.20%, therefore fear rose by +13.20%) that portends weakness/a downtrend during part of Wednesday 1-4's session.
The XAU Put/Call Ratio rose an unusually large (> 6%) +6.88% today to 1.09471 from 1.02423 on 1-3 which portends some weakness today because it's an unusually large (> 6%) rise in fear .
The latest COT (Commitments Of Traders) data is modestly bullish (as of 12-27-05) short term since the gold Commercial Traders traded net long and the gold Speculators traded net short, which jives with gold being in Elliot Wave B up of an Elliot Wave A, B, C minor intermediate term downcycle (see 1 year chart), but the significant long liquidation by the Commercial Traders points to some short term weakness. The gold Commercial Traders sold 1381 (sold 8157 the prior week, added 11,405 the prior week, sold 14,042 the prior week, added 17,312 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 2036 (added 4202, 2623 the prior two weeks, covered 5276 the prior week, added 16,229 the prior week) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (non contrarian indicator), but the significant long liquidation points to some weakness. The gold Speculators (hedge funds and other speculators/traders) sold 3988 (sold 5112, 19,247 the prior two weeks, added 9102 the prior week, sold 2697 the prior week) long futures and options contracts and covered 1535 (covered 7432, 8720 the prior two weeks, added 566, 2309 the prior two weeks) short futures and options contracts which portends strength this week (contrarian indicator). The most important consideration in timing any market is the cycle channels/trendlines (see charts below). Ciao
posted by Joe Ferrazzano at
6:57 AM
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