................................My 2006 Prediction

My 2006 prediction: Gold/silver stocks should romp until about May 2006 as discussed later (see next paragraph) because the long term upcycle that began on May 10, 2004 is near it's point of maximum strength. We've obviously seen some of that strength the past two months. After gold/silver stocks put in long term cycle highs gold and silver should peak a few months later, since they tend to lag gold/silver stocks at major cycle highs and lows, as occurred in 2004 when gold hit a long term cycle high in April 2004 versus December 2, 2003 for HUI/NEM and January 6, 2004 for the XAU. A major multi-week downcycle by the S & P 500 (SPX) will probably coincide closely with HUI, NEM, and the XAU hitting long term cycle lows in mid to late 2006 because index funds trading their gold/silver stock components have a profound influence on gold/silver stocks. SPX's 6 weekish correction in April/May 2004 coincided very closely with that of HUI, NEM, and the XAU's when they put in long term cycle lows on May 10, 2004 (that's my 2006 prediction).

The most important market timing consideration, therefore the most important thing to remember, is that HUI, NEM, and the XAU are in the sharply rising phase of the long term upcycle (began on May 10, 2004) since May 16, 2005's major intermediate term cycle lows (see latest charts, at http://www.joefrocks.com/TradetheCycles.html scroll down a few pages past the major averages stuff.), and, this major upcycle should last until about May 2006 based on the fact that the long term cycles have been getting progressively longer (see first chart and the HUI chart dated 5-12-05). HUI, NEM, and the XAU have been in a true Bull Market/very long term upcycle since October (NEM/XAU)/November (HUI) 2000 (see first chart and the XAU chart dated 7-12-05). They've been in a long term upcycle since May 10, 2004 (see first chart and the HUI chart dated August 5). They've been in a major intermediate term upcycle since May 16, 2005 (see latest charts). Gold began a very long term upcycle/true Bull Market in April 2001 and silver did so in late 2001. Elliot Wave Theory (see NEM chart dated 8-12-05 and the XAU chart dated 5-16-05) complements cycle channels/trendlines nicely (as do gaps), but is a secondary market timing tool, because cycle channels/trendlines are the primary market timing consideration.

See http://www.joefrocks.com/GoldStockCharts.html for all the charts. My home page is http://www.JoeFRocks.com/ I hope you'll take the time to e mail your friends re this Blog and my site/work/system. This will help to keep my work free, because the more visitors I get the more advertising $ I make. I have a long way to go but have made significant progress in recent months. Thank you.